Borussia Dortmund – VfB Stuttgart

GERMANY: Bundesliga – Matchday 21

Team and Player Statistical Analysis

Borussia Dortmund

• Team Form: Scored 8 goals and conceded 6 in their last four matches, and haven’t kept a clean sheet in their last 12 games.
• Strengths:
• Attacking Potential: 36 goals this season, over 2.0 xG in recent matches.
• Emre Can leads the defense but plays as a midfielder due to injuries and suspensions.
• Weaknesses:
• Defense: Weakened by injuries and suspensions to players like Nico Schlotterbeck and Niklas Sule.
• Home Form: Only one win in the last six home games.
• Key Players:
• Serhou Guirassy: 9 goals in 17 matches, a strong attacker.
• Julian Brandt: Creative midfielder with 5 assists.

VfB Stuttgart

• Team Form: Three losses in the last four matches but strong away form with 4 wins in the last 5 away games.
• Strengths:
• Stable Attack: 37 goals this season.
• Good away performance.
• Weaknesses:
• Defense: Several injured defenders (Dan-Axel Zagadou, Ameen Al Dakhil).
• Only one clean sheet in the last five games.
• Key Players:
• Deniz Undav: Consistently poses a goal threat.
• Angelo Stiller: Influential midfielder with 4 assists.

Expert Analysis Supplement

According to expert analysis, Dortmund has the edge due to the arrival of new manager Niko Kovac. The “new manager bounce” could improve their performance, but given their defensive vulnerabilities, Stuttgart is likely to score as well.

Probability Forecast:

• Dortmund win: 46.06%
• Stuttgart win: 31.45%
• Draw: 22.5%
• Both teams to score: 65.45%
• Over 2.5 goals: 65.03%.

Low-Risk Tips

1. Both teams to score (BTTS – Yes)

• Reasoning: Due to Dortmund’s weak defense and Stuttgart’s strong away form, it’s likely both teams will score.
• Probability: 65.45%
• Note: Dortmund hasn’t kept a clean sheet in their last 12 matches. Odds: 1.51 – Kelly: 2%

1. Over 2.5 goals in the match

• Reasoning: Both teams have strong attacking play and tend to concede many goals.
• Probability: 65.03%
• Note: Their last encounter ended in a 5-1 Stuttgart win. Odds: 1.54 – Kelly: 2%

1. Borussia Dortmund draw no bet (Asian handicap 0)

• Reasoning: Home advantage and the motivation from the new manager can help the team.
• Probability: 67.06%
• Note: Unbeaten in their last three matches (2 wins, 1 draw). Odds: 1.47 – Kelly: 2%

Interesting Observations

• Stuttgart’s dominance in the last encounter: Stuttgart won 5-1 against Dortmund last season, giving them a psychological advantage.
• Defensive issues: Dortmund has to use midfielders in defense due to injuries, increasing the likelihood of conceding goals.
• Impact of the new coach: Niko Kovac’s first home game could have a positive effect on Dortmund’s performance.