AZ Alkmaar – Utrecht

NETHERLANDS: Eredivisie – Round 7 – September 29, 2024

AZ Alkmaar Analysis:

AZ has shown remarkable offensive power throughout the season so far. They have scored 16 goals in 6 matches and have an xG of 4.83, meaning they are not only efficient but have also underperformed based on expected goals, indicating they could have scored even more. Ibrahim Sadiq and Troy Parrott have been key offensive players, each scoring 4 goals. AZ’s defense has also been reliable, conceding only 2 goals in 6 matches. The team operates with high possession and good chance creation, which can be particularly effective at home.

Utrecht Analysis:

Utrecht also possesses a strong attacking mindset, having scored 7 goals in 5 matches, with an xG of 2.40, indicating their ability to convert chances. However, their defense has been less effective, conceding 5 goals in 5 matches. Noah Ohio and Ole Romeny are the team’s most dangerous attackers, both being productive during the season. Utrecht’s overall performance has been balanced, but due to their defensive weaknesses and predictable offensive play, they may be vulnerable against a stronger team like AZ.

Key Trends and Patterns:

  • AZ Alkmaar’s offense is much stronger than Utrecht’s, and their defense is also more stable. AZ averages 2.67 goals per game while conceding only 0.33. Utrecht averages 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 goals conceded.
  • The match is likely to be dominated by AZ, especially given their strong home form. Utrecht’s defense does not appear strong enough to hold off AZ’s attacks.
  • Ibrahim Sadiq and Troy Parrott are the most dangerous attackers for AZ, while Noah Ohio poses the greatest threat on Utrecht’s side.

Tactical Notes:

  • AZ primarily builds their play around the creativity of their midfielders and quick counter-attacks. Jordy Clasie and Sven Mijnans are key players in preparing the offensive moves.
  • Utrecht’s attacking play relies mostly on the wingers and quick transitions, but their defense is often a weak point, particularly due to the performance of their central defenders.

Low-Risk Tips:

  1. Over 2.5 goals in the match (probability: 70%) – AZ’s attackers are in high form, and Utrecht’s unstable defense could lead to many goals.

Odds: 1.60 – Safe Kelly: 4%

  1. AZ Alkmaar to score more than 1.5 goals (probability: 70%) – AZ averages more than two goals per game, especially at home.

Odds: 1.55 – Safe Kelly: 4%

Medium-Risk Tips:

  1. Over 3.5 cards in the match (probability: 55%) – Both teams tend to commit fouls, and given the tense atmosphere of the match, several yellow cards could be issued.

Odds: 1.50 – Safe Kelly: 2%

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