European Championship Round of 16, July 2, 2024
Statistical Data Evaluation:
Austria showed relatively good form in the group stage with two wins and one loss, while Turkey also recorded two wins and one loss. The Austrians scored 6 goals and conceded 4, while Turkey finished the group stage with a goal difference of 5-4. Marko Arnautović and Marcel Sabitzer stood out for Austria, each contributing 1 goal to the team’s success. On Turkey’s side, Kerem Aktürkoğlu and Hakan Çalhanoğlu showed outstanding performances, both scoring goals.
Austria Statistical Evaluation:
Austria’s attacking play was relatively effective, producing 9.67 shots per 90 minutes in the group stage, of which 5.33 shots were on target. Their xG (expected goals) value was 3.8, indicating they performed realistically in attack. However, their defense was not as solid, conceding 6 goals in the group stage, which translates to an average of 2.0 goals conceded per match.
Turkey Statistical Evaluation:
The Turkish team also performed well in attack, averaging 17 shots per match, with 5.33 shots on target. Their xG value was 5.1, suggesting they underperformed slightly compared to expectations. Their defense, however, was more stable than Austria’s, averaging 5 goals conceded per match.
Analysis Based on Human Experts’ Opinions:
Human experts highlighted that Austria is motivated to advance, as they have achieved better results on the international stage in recent years. Key players like Arnautović and Sabitzer are ready for action, which could be a significant advantage. On Turkey’s side, Hakan Çalhanoğlu’s experience and game intelligence could play a crucial role in the match’s outcome. The Turkish team’s motivation is also high, as they have stabilized their performance in recent times.
Betting Recommendations:
Low-Risk Tip:
- Austria more than 3.5 corners (Low risk), more than 4.5 (Medium risk) – Austria has averaged 5 corners per 90 minutes in their matches so far. Based on this, it is likely that Austria will take more corners in the match.
- Risk: Low
- More than 1.5 goals in the match (Low risk), More than 2.5 goals in the match (Medium risk) – Considering the teams’ attacking and defensive statistics, it is likely that more goals will be scored.
- Risk: Medium
Medium-Risk Tip:
- More than 3.5 yellow cards (Low risk), more than 4.5 (Medium risk) – Given the high stakes, a tough contest with many fouls is expected.
- Risk: Medium
- Austria win (DNB – Draw No Bet): The Austrian team is in better form, and if the match ends in a draw, the stake is refunded.
- Risk: Medium
Detailed Evaluation:
It is important to note from Austria’s perspective that while their attacking play is efficient, their defense is vulnerable. The Turks, who also have a strong attacking line, could exploit this. Matches between the two teams are usually high-scoring, reinforcing the validity of the more than 2.5 goals tip. Both teams are motivated, and their key players are in good form, promising an intense match.
Human experts’ analysis also supports that although both teams are strong, the match’s outcome is hard to predict. Therefore, bets on goals and yellow cards might be safer choices as these factors are less dependent on the match’s specific outcome.
Summary:
Based on low and medium-risk tips, the safest bets for punters might be those focused on the number of goals and yellow cards. Both teams have strong attacking power, but their defenses are less stable, potentially resulting in a high-scoring match.