Augsburg – RB Leipzig

GERMANY: Bundesliga – Matchday 22

I. Team and Player Statistics Analysis

1. Augsburg Team Statistics

• Offense: Augsburg has scored only 24 goals so far this season, the lowest among the top 12 teams in the Bundesliga.
• Expected Goals (xG): Their xG is also the weakest in the league, indicating they create few quality chances.
• Defense: In their last 6 games, they’ve conceded just 3 goals, which is a great form, but with 35 goals conceded over the season, they rank as the fourth-worst defense up to the 14th position.
• Home Performance: Out of 10 home matches, they’ve won 6, with 2 draws and 3 losses – indicating they’re more stable at home.
• Recent Form: In their last 6 matches, it’s been 2 wins, 3 draws, and 1 loss, meaning they rarely lose but don’t win often either.

2. Augsburg Player Statistics

• Frank Onyeka and Arne Maier play key roles in midfield, but the offensive play remains subdued.
• Jeffrey Gouweleeuw along with several key defenders might be absent, potentially weakening the backline.
• Striker Shortage: Mergim Berisha and Yusuf Kabadayi are missing, further complicating an already weak offense.

3. RB Leipzig Team Statistics

• Offense: Leipzig has scored 41 goals, nearly twice as many as Augsburg.
• Defensive Problems: They’ve conceded 14 goals in their last 5 Bundesliga games, though they achieved two clean sheets in their last 2 matches.
• Away Form: They’ve lost 7 out of their last 10 away matches, which is a significant problem.
• Recent Form: In their last 5 matches, they’ve had 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, showcasing inconsistent performance.

4. RB Leipzig Player Statistics

• Loïs Openda and Benjamin Šeško are in excellent form, having scored 15 goals together this season.
• Willi Orban is absent due to suspension, altering their defense.
• El Chadaille Bitshiabu, Lutsharel Geertruida, and Castello Lukeba might make up the central defense, but it’s an untested combination.

Low-Risk Tip

1. RB Leipzig win or draw (X2) – Probability: 75%

• Justification: Though Leipzig struggles away, Augsburg’s offense isn’t strong enough for a win. A draw or Leipzig win is realistic.

Odds: 1.40 – Kelly: 3%

Medium-Risk Tip

2. Both teams to score – Probability: 57.5%

• Justification: Leipzig’s defense is unstable, but their attack is strong, and Augsburg regularly scores at home.

Odds: 1.68 – Kelly: 1%

III. Surprising Statistics and Observations

1. RB Leipzig’s away form is extremely weak – only one win out of 10 games, unusual for a team fighting for a Champions League spot.
2. Augsburg’s offense is the worst among the top 12, but they perform better at home.
3. Leipzig’s defense has stabilized in the last two games but conceded 14 goals in the previous 5 matches.
4. Augsburg has one of the lowest xG tallies this season – they create few quality chances.

Summary

• Leipzig is the favorite, but their poor away performance makes a win not guaranteed.
• From a betting perspective, safer options are the “Leipzig won’t lose” and “both teams to score” bets.
• Augsburg’s offense is limited, but they’re stronger at home.
• Leipzig’s attack is dominant, but their defense is inconsistent.
• The match is leaning towards a 1-2 or 1-1 result.