Atalanta – Bologna

Coppa Italia Quarterfinal

(This analysis was done using the usual system; NextGen analyses will be available after the system update.)

Team and Player Statistical Analysis

Atalanta

• Recent Performance: Atalanta achieved a dominant victory in the previous round of the Coppa Italia (6-1 against Cesena).
• Form: Last 6 matches: 2 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss.
• Home Performance: Reliable, especially against weaker opponents.
• Absentees: Scalvini, Lookman, Kossounou – key players missing in defense and attack.
• Expected Line-up: Patricio – Kolasinac, Hien, Djimsiti – Bellanova, Ederson, De Roon, Ruggeri – De Ketelaere, Samardzic – Retegui.

Key Players:

• Mateo Retegui (FORWARD): Strong attacker, reliable finisher, but fewer goals in recent weeks.
• Lazar Samardzic (MIDFIELDER): Creative player, already scored 2 goals in the cup.
• Ederson (MIDFIELDER): Central figure in midfield, contributes defensively and offensively.

Bologna

• Recent Performance: Confident 4-0 win over Monza in the cup.
• Form: 7 matches unbeaten streak (3 wins, 4 draws).
• Away Performance: Balanced, but struggles against top teams.
• Absentees: Ferguson is definitely out, Orsolini’s participation is questionable.
• Expected Line-up: Ravaglia – Holm, Lucumi, Beukema, Lykogiannis – Freuler, Pobega – Ndoye, Odgaard, Dominguez – Castro.

Key Players:

• Santiago Castro (FORWARD): Young talent, 1 goal in the cup.
• Tommaso Pobega (MIDFIELDER): Important work rate, 1 goal in the cup.
• Freuler (MIDFIELDER): Experienced midfielder, stabilizes the team.

Expert Analysis and Summary

Based on expert analysis, Atalanta is the favorite to win the match, especially with the home advantage. However, it’s important to consider that Bologna has been particularly stable and tough to beat lately. Expert predictions suggest:

• Probability of Atalanta win: 60.62%
• Probability of a draw: 22.3%
• Probability of Bologna win: 17.09%

The most likely results are:

• 1-0 to Atalanta (12.26%)
• 2-0 to Atalanta (11.34%)
• 1-1 draw (10.59%)
• 0-1 to Bologna (5.73%)

The match could be close, with the possibility of extra time.

Low-Risk Betting Tip

1. Atalanta draw or win + Under 3.5 goals

• Both teams will be cautious defensively, leading to fewer expected goals.

Odds: 1.66 – Kelly: 2%

Medium-Risk Tip

2. Atalanta to win (1X2) – 60.62% probability

• Atalanta is strong at home, and Bologna rarely wins there.
• Tip: Atalanta win.

Odds: 1.87 – Kelly: 1%

Interesting Statistical Observations

1. Atalanta’s 5th consecutive quarterfinal – They reached the final twice in the last four occasions.
2. Bologna unbeaten in 7 matches – Though there have been several draws, their performance has been stable.
3. Creativity might decline due to absentees – Both teams are missing key players.

Summary

• Atalanta is the favorite, but Bologna is in good form.
• Few goals are expected; 1-0 or 2-0 are the most likely scores.
• Alternative bets: Bologna to score, Under 3.5 goals.

This match could be tight, but Atalanta’s cup experience might give them an edge. It’s best to base your betting strategy on the more secure tips!