Copa America Final
Below is a detailed assessment of the Copa America final based on statistics and expert analysis of the Argentina and Colombia teams.
Argentina Statistical Analysis
Performance and Key Players:
- Lionel Messi is the key figure of the Argentine team, scoring 2 goals and providing 1 assist in 4 matches, with 1.7 xG and 2.5 xAG, indicating he is an extremely effective attacking player.
- Julián Álvarez and Lautaro Martínez are also in excellent form. Álvarez scored 2 goals in 3 matches with 1.9 xG, while Lautaro Martínez scored 4 goals in 5 matches with 2.9 xG.
- Midfielders Rodrigo De Paul and Alexis Mac Allister have outstanding pass accuracy, both with pass accuracy between 84-90%.
Defensive Strengths:
- Emiliano Martínez has had an excellent performance as a goalkeeper, conceding only 1 goal in 5 matches with a 90% save efficiency.
- Cristian Romero and Lisandro Martínez have performed solid defensive work, with Romero being particularly effective in aerial duels (66.7% win rate).
Colombia Statistical Analysis
Performance and Key Players:
- James Rodríguez is the leader of the Colombian team, scoring 1 goal and providing 6 assists in 5 matches, totaling 7 G+A. His pass accuracy (78%) and involvement in playmaking (6.51 SCA/90) are crucial for the team.
- Luis Díaz and Jhon Córdoba also play important roles in attacks. Díaz scored 2 goals in 5 matches with 1.6 xG and 1.5 xAG, while Córdoba scored 2 goals in 3 matches with 1.2 xG.
- Goalkeeper Camilo Vargas also performed excellently, conceding only 2 goals in 5 matches with an 81.8% save efficiency.
Defensive Strengths:
- Davinson Sánchez and Johan Mojica have performed solid defensive work, with Sánchez being particularly effective in aerial duels (66.7% win rate).
- Carlos Cuesta also played an important role in defense, with a 96.3% pass accuracy.
Expert Analysis
Experts believe Argentina’s motivation is very high as they aim to defend their title and dominate the tournament under Lionel Messi’s leadership. The Colombian team is also highly motivated, as they have not won a major international tournament for over a decade.
Betting Tips
Low Risk:
- Argentina win or draw (1.25x) – With Argentina’s strong attacking lineup and stable defense, they are likely to avoid defeat. (Low risk)
- Few yellow cards (Under 6.5 yellow cards – Low risk (1.54x); Under 5.5 yellow cards – Medium risk (1.90x)) – Based on statistics, both teams have received relatively few yellow cards in the tournament. Argentina collected 6 yellow cards in 5 matches, while Colombia also collected 11 yellow cards in 5 matches. Thus, fewer yellow cards are likely in the final.
Medium Risk:
3. Lionel Messi to score or assist at any time – Lionel Messi is in excellent form and is a key player in Argentina’s attacks. (Medium risk)
4. Argentina over 3.5 corners (Low risk, 1.38x); Argentina over 4.5 corners (Medium risk, 1.79x) – Given Argentina’s dominant attacking play and wing play, they are likely to win more corners.
Summary
The Copa America final promises to be a close match. With Argentina’s strong defense and effective attackers and Colombia’s creative midfield play and quick attacks, both teams have a chance to win. For bettors, few goals, number of corners, and Messi’s performance offer low or medium-risk betting opportunities.