EUROPE: UEFA Nations League – B-League – Round 6
Team Statistics
Albania:
- Formation: Primarily uses a 4-2-3-1 formation but switched to 4-1-4-1 in their most recent match.
- Results: Out of 5 matches, Albania has 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses.
- Home victory: Defeated Ukraine 2-1 with 41% possession.
- Biggest weakness: Ball possession in the range of 36-43%.
- Scoring: Averages 0.6 goals per game, indicating low efficiency.
- Defensive weakness: Conceded 4 goals, but home-field advantage could be significant.
Ukraine:
- Formation: Consistent 4-1-4-1 setup with strong midfield control.
- Results: 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses.
- Best result: 2-1 victory against Georgia with 41% possession.
- Scoring: Averages 1.2 goals per game, but forwards struggle with efficiency.
- Key players: Mudryk’s speed and creativity, and Trubin’s reliable defense.
Player Statistics
- Albania:
- Top scorers: Jasir Asani and Ardian Ismajli (1 goal each).
- Key passes: Kristjan Asllani with 11 crosses.
- Defense: Mario Mitaj and Ardian Ismajli with 6 interceptions each.
- Ukraine:
- Top scorers: Artem Dovbyk and Heorhiy Sudakov (1 goal each).
- Midfield performance: Sudakov with 2 assists and 4 key passes.
- Defense: Matviyenko and Zabarnyi combined for 11 interceptions.
Insights and Surprising Facts
- Albania’s home-field advantage is significant, particularly in defensive stability.
- Ukraine’s attacking potential is higher but lacks efficiency.
- Injuries are a challenge for both sides: Albania is missing several key players, while Ukraine’s goalkeeper and attacking lineup are weakened.
Low-Risk Tip
- Under 2.5 goals in the match (probability: 56.91%).
- Both teams struggle to score; Albania averages 0.6, Ukraine 1.2 goals.
Odds: 1.65 – Safe Kelly: 2%
Medium-Risk Tip
- Draw (probability: 13.02%).
- Based on analysis and previous matches, a draw is a realistic outcome.
Odds: 3.25 – Safe Kelly: 1%
Conclusion
A close match is expected between Albania and Ukraine, but based on statistics and current form:
- Albania has a better chance of securing points at home.
- Few goals are expected, with defense playing a crucial role.