ITALY: Serie A – Round 23
1. Team and Player Analysis
AC Milan Statistical Analysis
- Formation and Style: Throughout the season, Milan has typically used a 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3 formation. However, injuries might cause changes, especially in defense.
- Attacking Play: Rafael Leão (4 goals, 4 assists) and Tijjani Reijnders (6 goals) are key players in attack. Tammy Abraham may also play an important role.
- Ball Possession and XG (Expected Goals): AC Milan usually plays with 56-62% possession, but their expected goals (xG) can be lower than their actual goals, indicating varying efficiency.
- Defense: AC Milan has conceded an average of 1.3 goals per match this season, suggesting a moderately strong defense. Fikayo Tomori and Theo Hernández are key defenders, but Tomori often has to fill in at different positions.
Inter Milan Statistical Analysis
- Formation and Style: Inter consistently plays with a 3-5-2 formation, where wing-backs (Dumfries, Dimarco) have crucial roles in attacking from the sides.
- Attacking Play: Lautaro Martínez (9 goals, 3 assists) and Marcus Thuram (13 goals, 4 assists) are the main players in attack.
- Ball Possession and XG: Inter maintains around 55-60% possession, with a notably high xG, showcasing their effective attacking.
- Defense: Inter’s defense is outstanding: 0.7 goals conceded per match, and they haven’t conceded any goals in their last seven away matches.
Surprises and Standout Statistics
- Inter has scored 55 goals this season, their best performance since 1961.
- Denzel Dumfries has scored in each of his last three league matches, making him a surprising attacking option as well.
- AC Milan defeated Inter in their last two encounters, which might give them a psychological edge.
✅ Low-Risk Tips
- Both teams to score – YES (Probability: 55.08%)
- Both AC Milan and Inter have strong attacking lines, and scoreless matches have been rare between them in recent years.
Odds: 1.69 – Kelly: 2%
- Number of yellow cards over 4.5 (Probability: ~60%)
- The Derby della Madonnina is always intense, with both teams playing aggressive defense.
Odds: 1.49 – Kelly: 2%
⚠️ Medium-Risk Tip
- Lautaro Martínez to score – YES (Probability: ~45%)
- Lautaro is in excellent form, and scoring would mark his 10th goal against Milan.
Odds: 2.45 – Kelly: 1%
Summary and Recommendations
- Inter’s current form is stronger, but Milan has the potential to spring a surprise.
- The safest betting options are “Both teams to score” and a double chance for Inter.
- For medium risk, consider betting on Lautaro Martínez or Dumfries to score, as well as a high number of yellow cards.