ITALY: Serie A – Matchday 18
Team and Player Statistics
AC Milan:
- Home Performance: AC Milan has kept 6 clean sheets in 8 home matches in Serie A, showing outstanding defensive performance. However, in the last 4 matches, they have failed to score in three of them, indicating attacking problems.
- Key Player: Tijjani Reijnders has been involved in 10 goals, including assists. He is one of the most active midfielders in terms of shots and dribbles.
- Formation: Recently, they have used a 4-2-3-1 formation, which emphasizes attacking midfielders.
AS Roma:
- Away Form: They have suffered defeats in the last four away games, highlighting defensive weaknesses.
- Goal Threat: Paulo Dybala has been outstanding, scoring two goals in the win against Parma. He is the player with the most direct involvement in goals against Milan (12 goals).
- Defensive Issues: In Roma’s defense, Obite N’Dicka and Gianluca Mancini have shown mixed performances in aerial duels, with only a 50% win rate.
Betting Tips
Low-Risk Bet
- AC Milan Draw No Bet (Probability: 60.64%)
- Justification: The team’s excellent home defensive record and AS Roma’s weak away form.
- Stat: AC Milan is unbeaten in 6 home matches.
Odds: 1.61 – Kelly: 2%
Medium-Risk Bet
- Under 3 Goals (Asian Goal Count) (Probability: 67.86%)
- Justification: Both teams tend to play with a solid defense and less effective attacking play.
Odds: 1.53 – Kelly: 1%
Observations and Insights
- Statistical Differences: AC Milan is much more effective at home, while AS Roma has a historic disadvantage at the San Siro stadium.
- Reijnders’ Outstanding Form: The midfielder’s presence could be crucial, as his attacking efficiency aligns with AC Milan’s success.
- Dybala and San Siro: Despite Dybala’s multiple goals against Milan, he has scored only once at San Siro.
Summary
Based on AC Milan’s current home form and AS Roma’s away issues, Milan is favored to win. Their defense is stable, while AS Roma primarily relies on Dybala’s creativity. In terms of betting, it is advisable to consider lower-risk bets, such as Milan to win, and avoid higher-risk specific scoreline predictions.