ENGLAND: Premier League – Matchday 17
Team Statistics
- Everton (Season Summary):
- Performance: Everton has struggled both away and at home; in their last 5 home matches, they recorded 2 losses and 3 draws.
- Strengths: Everton’s defense is outstanding; in the last 10 matches, their opponents’ expected goals average (xGA) is just 0.9, one of the best in Europe.
- Weaknesses: Their attacking efficiency is poor; Everton’s forwards have accumulated only 0.8 xG per match, which is extremely low.
- Formation: They typically play in a 4-2-3-1 formation, focusing on defensive stability.
- Chelsea (Season Summary):
- Performance: Chelsea has won their last 8 matches across all competitions, marking their best form since their league title under Antonio Conte.
- Strengths: Their attack is excellent, with Nicolas Jackson scoring 9 goals so far, and Cole Palmer contributing 11 goals.
- Weaknesses: Their away form at Goodison Park has been disappointing, losing 5 of their last 6 matches there.
- Formation: They mostly use a 4-2-3-1 formation, offering a balanced attacking and defensive strategy.
Player Statistics
- Everton Players:
- Dominic Calvert-Lewin: Still goalless in 11 matches, which is concerning for the forward.
- James Tarkowski: A key figure in defense, with excellent aerial duel stats (69.2%).
- Jarrad Branthwaite: Was crucial in the match against Arsenal, proving the strength of Everton’s defense.
- Chelsea Players:
- Cole Palmer: A creative midfielder, vital in creating passes and chances (6 assists so far).
- Nicolas Jackson: The most dangerous player for Chelsea at the moment.
- Robert Sánchez: The goalkeeper has been solid, with a 100% aerial duel success rate.
Betting Recommendations
Low-Risk Tip:
- Under 3.5 goals in the match:
- Rationale: Due to Everton’s strong defense, their matches often have fewer goals. Chelsea has averaged 1.8 goals away in their last 3 matches.
- Probability: ~66.31%
Odds: 1.51 – Kelly: 2%
Medium-Risk Tip:
- Chelsea to win:
- Rationale: Chelsea’s current form is impressive, while Everton’s attack is weak.
- Probability: ~52%
Odds: 1.67 – Kelly: 2%
Interesting Statistical Facts and Expert Analysis Highlights
- Everton: Everton is the only team maintaining an xGA average of 0.9 since November, yet they have failed to score in 8 matches.
- Chelsea: Chelsea has lost 5 of their last 6 matches at Goodison Park, which could present a psychological disadvantage.
- Form: Chelsea is just 2 points behind the league leaders, making every match crucial for them.
Summary
Based on the data, Chelsea appears to be the favorites for the win, but Everton’s strong home defense may pose a challenge. When placing bets, it’s worth focusing on the low-scoring scenarios, considering Everton’s resilient defense.