Detailed Analysis

Lecce’s Performance

Lecce isn’t in their best form. Out of their last five matches, they’ve won only once, drawn twice, and lost three times. In their last four games, they’ve recorded less than 1.0 xG (expected goals) against their opponents, including matches against Fiorentina and Udinese. Furthermore, Lecce’s striker, Nikola Krstović, is struggling to find the back of the net despite being the player with the most attempts.

AC Milan’s Performance

Based on recent results, Milan is also in poor form: three losses, one win, and one draw. The difficulties in their game are highlighted by the fact that they’ve lost their last three matches all with a 2-1 scoreline. It’s also noteworthy that the team collects a lot of yellow and red cards, indicating poor discipline. Despite this, Milan has a stronger attacking lineup.

Recommendations

Low-Risk Tip

Under 3.5 Goals

Statistics indicate that both teams are having trouble scoring goals. In five of Lecce’s last six matches, there were fewer than 3.5 goals, similar to Milan’s recent games. The probability that few goals will be scored is at least 70% based on their current form.

Medium-Risk Tip

Milan to Win

Considering Milan’s experience in tougher challenges and their better performance against defensive teams, they are expected to defeat Lecce. Their winning chances are around 55%, taking into account the differences in their attacking strengths.

Milan Over 5 Corners

Due to Milan’s strong attacking play, they often earn multiple corners. In their previous matches, they have had a high number of corners, so a similar performance is likely, especially against a more defensive team. This is expected with over a 60% chance.

Surprising or Interesting Observations

• Lecce’s extremely poor chance conversion highlights the need for attention on Nikola Krstović; despite his many attempts, his goal count is low.
• Milan’s formation and player choice variations can make the team’s play less predictable.
• Milan’s disciplinary issues – with many yellow and red cards – could also affect the flow of the game.