EUROPE: Champions League – Play Off – Last 16
Team and Player Statistic Analysis
Feyenoord:
- Team Performance:
- Wins: Surprising 3-0 victory against Bayern Munich, a draw with Manchester City (3-3), but a heavy defeat to Lille (1-6).
- Defense: Only 2 clean sheets in 15 matches. Ranks among the worst defensive stats in the group stage for goals conceded.
- Home Performance: Lost just one of their last 11 home matches against Italian teams.
- Player Performances:
- Santiago Gimenez: 6 goals, averaging a goal every 59 minutes in the Champions League.
- Igor Paixao: 4 assists, the second-most in the group stage.
- Dávid Hancko: A solid defender with a 66.7% aerial duel success rate.
AC Milan:
- Team Performance:
- Wins: Strong victories against Real Madrid and Club Brugge, but losses to Liverpool and Dinamo Zagreb.
- Defense: Only 2 clean sheets in 12 matches, with their away form particularly poor in knockout stages.
- Away Performance: Haven’t won any of their last 11 away knockout matches in the Champions League, scoring just 3 goals in the last 10 away games.
- Player Performances:
- Tijjani Reijnders and Rafael Leao: Both players contributed with 3 goals each.
- Mike Maignan: A reliable goalkeeper, though recently undermined by weak defending.
Supplementary Analysis
Analysts indicate Feyenoord’s winning probability is 50.98%, while AC Milan’s is 26.19%. The chances of a draw are 22.8%. Due to both teams’ weak defenses, there is a high likelihood that both teams will score (60.21%).
Interesting Observations:
- Feyenoord is currently off form but strong at home against Italian teams.
- Historically, AC Milan performs poorly in away matches in the Champions League.
Low-Risk Tip:
- Both teams to score (Yes)
- Probability: 60.21%
- Rationale: Both teams have weak defenses, and historical stats suggest frequent goal exchanges.
Odds: 1.63 – Kelly: 2%
Medium-Risk Tip:
- Feyenoord draw or win
- Probability: 65.98%
- Rationale: Despite the recent slump, they are strong at home, especially against Italian teams.
Odds: 1.73 – Kelly: 1%
Surprising and Interesting Facts
- Feyenoord is one of the weakest defensive teams among those advancing from the group stage, yet they managed to defeat Bayern Munich 3-0.
- AC Milan hasn’t won any of their last 11 away knockout games in the Champions League and scored only 3 goals in those encounters.
- Santiago Gimenez from Feyenoord makes a quick return against his former team, AC Milan, after the Italian team signed him.