ITALY: Serie A – Round 24
Team and Player Statistics Analysis
Napoli Team Statistics
- Form and Performance: Napoli boasted seven consecutive wins in Serie A before drawing against Roma. At home, in Stadio Maradona, they’ve won 9 out of 11 matches and kept clean sheets 6 times.
- Offensive Performance: They average 3.1 goals per match against Udinese at home.
- XG Data: Their expected goals (xG) values so far range from 2.5 to 1.9, indicating strong attacking play.
Udinese Team Statistics
- Form and Performance: Udinese has failed to beat Napoli in their last 17 league matches (14 losses, 3 draws). This season, they’ve lost 5 out of 9 away matches.
- Offensive Performance: Their expected goals (xG) are low (e.g., 0.9 and 1.0), highlighting weak offensive efficiency.
- Weak Defense: Their defense is shaky, with xGA (expected goals against) values often exceeding 3, which points to significant defensive issues.
Player Statistics
Napoli Key Players
- Romelu Lukaku: Scored 6 goals in 8 matches against Udinese, making him a standout attacking weapon.
- Andre-Frank Zambo Anguissa: 5 goals and 3 assists this season, along with 101 ball recoveries, indicating midfield dominance.
- Giovanni Di Lorenzo: A rock in defense with 3 goals and 1 assist, along with standout ball recovery stats.
Udinese Key Players
- Lorenzo Lucca: 17 goals since the start of last season, with 8 from headers, showcasing his aerial prowess.
- Florian Thauvin: 5 goals and 3 assists, but shows low efficiency in the attacking third.
- Jaka Bijol: A solid defender, but unable to compensate for Udinese’s defensive weaknesses.
Additional Expert Analysis
According to expert analysis, Napoli has a 67.84% probability of winning the match, while Udinese’s chance of winning stands at just 12.04%. The most likely result is a 1-0 Napoli win (13.65%), followed by a 2-0 outcome (13.54%).
Low Risk Bet
- Napoli Win
- Explanation: Napoli’s dominance at home and Udinese’s poor away form reinforce this choice.
- Probability: 67.84%
- Consideration: Napoli has won 10 successive home victories against Udinese.
Odds: 1.46 – Kelly: 2%
Medium Risk Bet
- Romelu Lukaku to Score
- Explanation: Lukaku has scored 6 goals in 8 matches against Udinese.
- Probability: 60-65% (considering historical data and form)
Odds: 2.35 – Kelly: 1%
Interesting Observations
- Historical Dominance: Napoli is unbeaten in 17 matches against Udinese, which offers a significant psychological advantage.
- Lorenzo Lucca’s Headers: Udinese’s player Lucca’s exceptional headers could be dangerous during corners, yet Napoli’s aerial defense has been stable.
- Low Udinese Offensive Efficiency: Udinese averages less than 1 goal away, which points to limited offensive opportunities.
Final Summary
Based on statistical data and expert analysis, Napoli is clearly favored to win the match, while Udinese appears capable only of springing a surprise. The safer bets point towards a Napoli victory and low-scoring matches. Among individual performances, Romelu Lukaku stands out, while due to Udinese’s weak form, alternative bets (e.g., few goals, number of yellow cards) might also be worthwhile.