ITALY: Serie A – Round 24
Team and Player Statistics Analysis
Venezia Team Statistics:
- Form: Venezia hasn’t won in their last six league matches (LDLDDL). They’ve been particularly weak away from home, but they only lost one out of their last five matches at home.
- Attacking Weaknesses: Based on the xG (expected goals) metric, they have often underperformed compared to their opponents, especially early in the season when they frequently produced an xG under 0.5. Joel Pohjanpalo, their top scorer, has left, further weakening their attack.
- Defensive Problems: One of their biggest weaknesses is maintaining a lead—they have lost 27 points from leading positions, which is the worst in the European top leagues.
Venezia Player Statistics:
- Gaetano Oristanio: 2 goals and 3 assists, but according to the xG metric, he has underperformed (-0.76 xG/90 minutes).
- Hans Nicolussi Caviglia: Scored three free-kick goals, highlighting him as a dangerous set-piece taker.
- Injuries: The injury to goalkeeper Filip Stankovic is a significant defensive setback.
AS Roma Team Statistics:
- Form: AS Roma is undefeated in their last seven Serie A matches (DWDWWD), but their away performance is weak, with only one win all season.
- Attacking Strengths: Since Ranieri’s return, they have scored the second most goals in the league after Inter Milan. Artem Dovbyk has scored eight goals so far and plays an important role in their attack.
- Defense: Roma’s defense has become more stable with the return of Gianluca Mancini, but they remain vulnerable to quick counterattacks.
AS Roma Player Statistics:
- Artem Dovbyk: 8 goals and 2 assists, in strong attacking form.
- Lorenzo Pellegrini: As team captain, he is crucial in organizing attacks.
- Absentees: Manu Kone is suspended, which could weaken midfield stability.
Analysis Complemented by Expert Writing
The expert analysis reinforces the picture outlined by the statistics:
- Roma’s Advantage: Although AS Roma struggles away, given their recent form and attacking potential, they are more likely to win. According to the analysis, Roma’s chance of winning is 45.17%, while Venezia’s is only 28.55%.
- Expected Goals: The most likely result is a 1-0 win for Roma (11.43%), but a 1-1 draw (12.48%) is also a realistic scenario.
- Injuries and Suspensions: The absence of Venezia’s goalkeeper (Filip Stankovic) and Roma’s midfield suspension (Manu Kone) could be key factors.
Low-Risk Betting Tip:
- Under 3.5 goals + Roma draw or win (X2)
- Justification: Although Roma has been scoring more recently, combined with Venezia’s weak attack, it’s likely to be a low-scoring game.
Odds: 1.75 – Kelly: 2%
Medium-Risk Tip:
- Roma win (Chance: 45.45%)
- Justification: Roma is in better form, remaining unbeaten in their last seven matches. Although weak away, Venezia’s home performance is not convincing either.
Odds: 1.76 – Kelly: 1%
Surprising Facts and Trivia
- Venezia’s Point Losses from Leading Positions: The 27 points lost after taking the lead are notably high, showing the team struggles to maintain pressure and hold onto a lead.
- AS Roma’s Away Wins: Although their away win streak is poor, they’ve started to improve in recent weeks, signaling a potential change in team dynamics.
- Pohjanpalo’s Departure: This is a serious blow for Venezia, as he was their main goal scorer.