ENGLAND: EFL Cup – Semi-final Second Leg
Team and Player Statistical Analysis
Liverpool Team Statistics:
- Form: 4 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss in their last 6 matches.
- Home Advantage: Undefeated in their last 15 home games.
- Goals: 13 goals in the last 6 matches, with 7 scored in the first half.
- Key Players:
- Cody Gakpo: 4 goals in the EFL Cup, leading the team’s scoring chart.
- Mohamed Salah: Outstanding form throughout the season, but his current status is unclear.
Tottenham Team Statistics:
- Form: 3 wins, 3 losses in their last 6 matches.
- Away Performance: Played only once away in the EFL Cup so far.
- Goals: 12 goals scored and 9 conceded in the last 6 matches.
- Key Players:
- Dominic Solanke: 2 goals in the EFL Cup, one of which was the opening goal of the match.
- Dejan Kulusevski and Brennan Johnson: Scored in the last FA Cup match.
Patterns, Strengths, and Weaknesses
Liverpool:
- Strengths:
- High ball possession percentage in home games (average of 61% in the EFL Cup).
- Fast start: Often take the lead in the first half.
- Weaknesses:
- Defensive errors in recent games: 6 goals conceded in the last 6 matches.
Tottenham:
- Strengths:
- Effective attacking play, even against strong teams (victory over Manchester City in the EFL Cup).
- Weaknesses:
- Defensive issues: Regularly concede goals against stronger opponents.
- Questionable away performance: Less experience in away matches in the EFL Cup.
Incorporating Expert Analysis:
- Previous Match Result: Tottenham won the first leg 1-0, with a late goal by Lucas Bergvall.
- Expected Scenario: According to the analysis, Liverpool is likely to dominate and score multiple goals, given their particularly strong attacking play at home.
Low-Risk Tip:
- Both teams to score – Probability: 58.24%
Justification: Tottenham has scored in every EFL Cup match, while Liverpool’s defense isn’t always stable.
Odds: 1.54 – Kelly: 2%
Medium-Risk Tip:
- Tottenham +2.5 Asian handicap –
Justification: This bet wins if Tottenham loses by a maximum of 2 goals. We believe a tight match is expected, where Tottenham can keep pace with Liverpool.
Odds: 1.58 – Kelly: 1%
Interesting Observations and Surprising Facts
- Tottenham lacks stable away performance, which should be considered when weighing the odds.
- Liverpool’s goal-scoring prowess at home is remarkable, supported by statistics and expert opinions.
- Tottenham’s defense is prone to mistakes against strong opponents, as reflected in the data, especially during away games.
This analysis is based on statistical data and expert opinions to provide a comprehensive outlook on the expected outcome of the Liverpool-Tottenham EFL Cup match.