ITALY: Serie A – Round 23 (The analysis follows the usual system, NextGen analyses will arrive after the system transition)
Team Statistics Analysis
Cagliari Team Stats
- Home Form: Weak – they’ve lost 4 out of their last 5 home games.
- Goal Opportunities: They generate an average of 1.0 xG, but concede 1.9 xGA per match, indicating significant defensive issues.
- Attacking Struggles: They’ve played 9 matches this season without scoring a goal – the most in the entire Serie A.
- Set Piece Defense: Particularly weak, with 14 conceded goals from set pieces (the most in Serie A).
- General Performance: Low ball possession (averaging below 50%) and few successful passes in the attacking third.
Lazio Team Stats
- Extreme as Visitors: Lazio is the only team in Serie A that hasn’t drawn away from home yet.
- Defensive Stability: They keep opponents under 1 goal with a 50.72% probability.
- Efficient Attack: There’s an 81.75% chance they score at least 1 goal per match, and in half the matches, they score at least 2 goals.
- Set Pieces: One of the most successful teams in Serie A from set pieces (13 goals, only surpassed by Inter).
- Play Style: More active in midfield with greater ball possession (averaging over 55%).
Player Statistics Analysis
Cagliari Players
- Roberto Piccoli (5 goals): The most threatening forward, but lacks proper support from midfield.
- Yerry Mina: Best in defensive duels (72% efficiency), but the team overall is weak defensively.
- Razvan Marin: The most dangerous in midfield, but often comes in as a substitute.
Lazio Players
- Valentín Castellanos (7 goals): The top attacker in the team, standing out with 0.76 xG/90 performance.
- Mattia Zaccagni (6 goals, 3 assists): Poses a serious threat from midfield as well.
- Matteo Guendouzi: Outstanding in tackling as a defensive midfielder, yet also actively participates in attacks.
🔹 Low-Risk Tip
**1. Lazio with a Draw No Bet (Asian Handicap 0) – ** (74.4%)
- Lazio is likely to win and has been historically dominant against Cagliari.
- Cagliari has only won 2 of their last 19 matches against Lazio.
Odds: 1.43 – Kelly: 4%
🔹 Medium-Risk Tips
**2. Lazio to Win and Under 3.5 Goals – **
- Lazio has a 54.45% chance of winning, and low-scoring games are more likely.
- There’s a 71.94% probability of fewer than 3.5 goals in the match.
Odds: 2.85 – Kelly: 0.5%
3. Castellanos to Score – Approx. 2.50 odds
- He’s on 7 goals, and Cagliari’s weak set-piece defense might help him.
Odds: 2.50 – Kelly: 1%
Interesting Observations and Surprising Stats
🔹 Lazio’s Historical Dominance: Undefeated against Cagliari for 19 matches, their longest run against any team.
🔹 Cagliari’s Poor Set-Piece Defense: 14 goals conceded, the worst in Serie A.
🔹 Lazio’s Away Game Streak Without Draws: None of their away games have ended in a draw this season.
🔹 Cagliari’s Home Struggles: Already near as many home losses as the entire previous season.
Summary
📌 Lazio is the favorite, but a goal-fest is not expected.
📌 Cagliari’s weak set-piece defense could be exploited by Lazio.
📌 The chances of an upset are minimal, but a close Lazio win or a 1-1 draw is realistic.
👉 Most Likely Results:
- 0-1 (11.71%)
- 0-2 (9.97%)
- 1-2 (9.71%)
- 1-1 (11.41%) (if Cagliari pulls off a surprise)