ENGLAND: Premier League – Matchweek 24 (Analysis using the usual system, NextGen analyses will be available after the system transition)
** Team and Player Statistics Analysis**
Chelsea Statistical Highlights
- Goals and Offense:
- Chelsea’s attack is strong: Cole Palmer stands out with 14 goals and 6 assists.
- Nicolas Jackson also plays a key role with 9 goals and 5 assists.
- According to xG (expected goals) data, Chelsea dominated their matches: Their average xG ranged between 1.8 and 2.4, indicating good finishing capability.
- Defense:
- In defense, Moisés Caicedo (137 recoveries) and Levi Colwill (62) play important roles.
- Goalkeeper Robert Sánchez had a 74.6% save success rate, which is average.
West Ham Statistical Highlights
- Goals and Offense:
- West Ham’s attacks mainly rely on Jarrod Bowen (5 goals, 4 assists).
- Tomáš Souček is also dangerous (5 goals), mainly effective from set pieces and incoming shots.
- According to xG data, West Ham produces an average of 1.0-1.5 xG per match, which is significantly weaker than Chelsea’s data.
- Defense:
- In the defense, Max Kilman and Konstantinos Mavropanos are the most active.
- Goalkeeper Alphonse Areola, with a 58.6% save success rate, is among the weakest in the Premier League.
- West Ham has conceded 39 goals, one of the worst records in the league.
** Key Trends and Interesting Facts**
- Chelsea Dominance: The data predicts a 78.72% chance of Chelsea winning the match, while West Ham’s win probability is only 8.5%.
- Importance of Jarrod Bowen: His performance is vital as he’s involved in nearly a third of West Ham’s goals.
- Chelsea’s Home Strength: They average 2+ goals at home, while West Ham struggles with defense away.
** Betting Tips and Recommendations**
✅ Low-Risk Tip:
- Chelsea Win – With a 78.72% probability, the statistics clearly favor Chelsea.
1.37 – Kelly: 2%
⚠️ Medium-Risk Tips:
- Chelsea Over 5.5 Corners – Due to Chelsea’s dominance, they might lead more attacks.
Odds: 1.44 – Kelly: 1%
- Over 2.5 Goals in the Match – 74.7% chance, as Chelsea tends to score a lot, and West Ham’s defense is weak.
Odds: 1.38 – Kelly: 1%
** Surprising Facts and Expert Insights**
📌 Chelsea is expected to dominate the match, West Ham may only pose a threat through counterattacks and set pieces.
📌 Jarrod Bowen alone may not be enough against Chelsea, as the rest of the team’s attack hasn’t shown strong form.
📌 Chelsea will be fresh and more rested, which could also work to their advantage.
Summary
Statistically, Chelsea is stronger, both in attack and defense. When it comes to betting tips, it’s advisable to avoid risky options and focus on a Chelsea win or goals.