Arsenal - Manchester City

ENGLAND: Premier League – Round 24

Team and Player Statistics Analysis

Form: Arsenal boasts an outstanding home record (unbeaten at home in 2024-25).
Scoring: They have demonstrated a stable attacking play in recent matches, with their xG ranging between 1.5-2.1 on average.
Defense: The pairing of William Saliba and Gabriel Magalhães adds stability to the defense, averaging 2.6 tackles per match together.
Unavailable Players: Bukayo Saka, Gabriel Jesus, and Ben White are still out, which might reduce their attacking potential.
Best Form Players: Kai Havertz (8 goals, 2 assists) and Martin Ødegaard (playmaker role, 90% passing accuracy).

Form: City has been strong in the second half of the season, losing only one out of 40 matches since January.
Scoring: Erling Haaland still leads the team’s scoring chart with 18 goals, though he has only scored 3 goals in the last 5 matches.
Defense: Their average xGA of 0.7-1.0 indicates that they allow few chances to their opponents. Rúben Dias and Joško Gvardiol play significant roles in their solid defense.
Unavailable Players: Rodri, Doku, Ake, Ruben Dias – key absences in midfield and defense.
Best Form Players: Bernardo Silva (2 goals, 4 assists, key passes: 2.1/match) and Joško Gvardiol (high defensive efficiency, 60.4% aerial duel success rate).

Arsenal has been the best-performing team since Matchday 11, collecting 29 points, the best in the league.
Manchester City’s second-half dominance: They rarely lose in the second half of the season, though they’re weaker in the first half.
Expected tight match: Predictions suggest the most likely result is a 2-1 Arsenal win (9.62%), followed by 1-0 Arsenal (7.71%) and 2-0 Arsenal (7.49%).
Chance of both teams scoring: 61.96% – so there’s a high chance both teams will find the net.
Tactical key: Arsenal’s stable defense against Manchester City’s creative midfield play (De Bruyne – Silva).

💡 1. Both teams to score (BTTS – Yes)

Explanation: Arsenal is always dangerous at home, while City’s attack is strong even with Haaland’s dip in form.
Probability: 61.96%

💡 2. Arsenal draw no bet (Asian 0 handicap)

Explanation: Arsenal is unbeaten at home, and City may be weaker due to injured key players.
Probability: 74%

💡 3. Over 2.5 goals in the match

Explanation: Both Arsenal and City favor an attacking approach, though their recent encounters haven’t always been high-scoring.
Probability: 62.58%
Suggested Bet: Yes

📊 Based on probable outcomes, the most secure tips are “Both teams to score” and “Arsenal draw no bet” ✅