Sporting CP – Bologna

EUROPE: Champions League – Group Stage – Round 8

Team Statistics and Trends

Sporting CP:

• Home Performance: Sporting has achieved 13 wins in 15 home matches across all competitions. However, they have lost their last three Champions League games.
• xG and Defense: Their average xG (expected goals) is 1.64, showing strong attacking potential. However, the 1–5 loss against Arsenal highlights defensive weaknesses, particularly against strong teams.
• Key Players: Viktor Gyökeres is the team’s top scorer with 6 goals and is essential to keep in the starting lineup.

Bologna:

• Away Form: Bologna has earned just one point away in the Champions League (0-0 against Benfica) and is yet to secure a win. Overall, their attacking potential is more modest.
• Defensive Performance: Bologna’s defense appears more stable, as evidenced by their 58% aerial duel win rate.
• Attacking Shortcomings: Based on xG, they average around 0.92 goals per match, significantly lower than their opponents.

Player Analysis

Sporting CP:

• Viktor Gyökeres: Highly effective with 6 goals and 1 assist so far this season.
• Francisco Trincão: A creative midfielder contributing 2 assists.
• Missing Players: Injuries to Pedro Goncalves and Jerry St. Juste are significant setbacks.

Bologna:

• Santiago Castro: The team’s most dangerous attacker with 6 goals and 4 assists this season.
• Sam Beukema: A strong defensive presence, especially in aerial duels (58% win rate).
• Missing Players: Orsolini (hamstring), Freuler (suspension), and Lykogiannis (injury).

Low-Risk Tips:

1. Sporting CP Win: Based on their home form and Bologna’s poor away performance, Sporting has about a 66% chance of winning.
   • Probability: 66%
   • Reasoning: Sporting dominates at home, while Bologna struggles away.
   Odds: 1.49 – Kelly: 2%
2. Under 3.5 Goals in the Match:
   • Probability: 64.8%
   • Reasoning: Both teams’ defenses appear more solid, particularly Bologna’s.
   Odds: 1.51 – Kelly: 2%

4. Interesting Statistics and Observations

• Sporting CP’s Home Dominance: Only one of their last 24 Champions League home games ended in a draw.
• Bologna Injury Wave: Suspensions and injuries to key players could weaken their defense.
• Gyökeres vs. Castro: Both teams have standout attackers to watch closely.

Summary

Sporting CP is the favorite, especially at home. However, Bologna’s defense and counterattacks could pose a threat. The safest bets are on a Sporting win and a low-scoring match.