January 24, 2024, Serie A
1. Analysis of Team Statistics
Torino
- Matches: 21
- Wins: 5
- Draws: 8
- Losses: 8
- Goals Scored: 21
- Goals Conceded: 26
- Goal Difference: -5
- Points Earned: 23
- Expected Goals (xG): 19.0
- Expected Goals Against (xGA): 19.0
- Last 5 Matches Form: L D D D D
- Top Scorer: Che Adams (5 goals)
Cagliari
- Matches: 21
- Wins: 5
- Draws: 6
- Losses: 10
- Goals Scored: 23
- Goals Conceded: 34
- Goal Difference: -11
- Points Earned: 21
- Expected Goals (xG): 28.2
- Expected Goals Against (xGA): 28.2
- Last 5 Matches Form: L L W D W
- Top Scorers: Roberto Piccoli, Nadir Zortea (5 goals)
Observations:
- Both teams have an expected goal difference (xGD) of zero, indicating balanced performances.
- Torino has shown poor form in their last five matches (4 draws, 1 loss), while Cagliari has displayed a more positive trend with two wins and one draw recently.
- Cagliari has conceded more goals (34), indicating defensive issues.
2. Comparison of Key Players
- Torino: Che Adams is the team’s most dangerous attacker, but the team overall struggles offensively.
- Cagliari: Roberto Piccoli and Nadir Zortea are in good form, with the latter particularly dangerous, scoring in three consecutive matches.
3. Betting Tips by Risk Levels
Low-Risk Tips
- Under 3.5 Goals – Probability: 78.23%, Odds: 1.24, Kelly: 4%
Under 2.5 Goals – Probability: 60.66%, Odds: 1.63, Kelly: 2%
- Both teams may adopt a defensive approach, and Torino has scored few goals in recent matches.
- Torino Double Chance (1X) – Probability: 74%, Odds: 1.30, Kelly: 4%
- Torino is more stable at home, and Cagliari has poor away performance.
Medium-Risk Tips
- Draw – Probability: 27.9%, Odds: 3.20, Kelly: 1%
- Torino tends to play to a draw, and their head-to-head matches have been balanced.
4. Interesting Findings from the Analysis
- Torino has not won in their last five matches, which may place psychological pressure on them.
- Cagliari is capable of turning matches around, as demonstrated by their recent victory against Lecce.
- For Torino, maintaining a stable defense will be crucial, as several of their players are injured or suspended.
Based on the above data, the match is likely to be tight with few goals, and Torino may enter as slight favorites.