Fiorentina – Torino

ITALY: Serie A – Matchday 21

1. Team and Player Statistics Analysis

Fiorentina

• Team-level trends:
  • They have a 55.46% probability of winning against Torino this season. Most likely outcomes: 1-0 (11.68%), 2-0 (10.12%).
  • At home, their possession averages 61%, indicating dominance in midfield.
  • Moise Kean has been outstanding: 18 matches, 11 goals, and 2 assists. His xG value is 6.3, showing he is efficient in converting chances.
• Weaknesses:
  • They are winless in their last five matches, including a surprising defeat to Monza.
  • Their defense is prone to lapses against weaker opponents (e.g., goals conceded against Monza).

Torino

• Team-level trends:
  • Several recent draws (e.g., Derby della Mole) suggest stability but a lack of attacking power.
  • Away games tend to have xG values below 1, indicating a weak attacking unit.
• Key players:
  • Nikola Vlasic: His creativity and ability to organize attacks stand out. While they have scored few goals, he plays a crucial role in their offensive play.
  • Defense: Saúl Coco and Adam Masina are excellent in aerial duels (57.4% and 76.6% win rates).

Low-risk tip

1. Fiorentina win
   • Probability: 55.46%
   • Rationale: They are stronger at home, and their attack is more effective against Torino’s weak defense.

Odds: 1.76 – Kelly: 2%

Medium-risk tip

2. Under 3.5 goals
   • Probability: 71.47%
   • Rationale: Both teams tend to have low-scoring matches.

Odds: 1.67 – Kelly: 1%

3. Surprising Facts and Insights

• Fiorentina’s slump in form: After an eight-match winning streak at the start of the season, they have been winless in their last six matches.
• Torino’s weak away form: Just one win in their last five away games.
• Defensive duels: Torino is stronger in defense (especially through Masina and Coco), but this hasn’t translated to better results.

Conclusion

This match is crucial for both teams to improve their form. Statistically, Fiorentina is the favorite, especially at home and due to Kean’s form. The betting recommendations focus on low and medium-risk options, avoiding excessive uncertainty.