ITALY: Serie A – Round 19
Team Statistics
Internazionale:
- Strengths:
- They are unbeaten in their last 13 Serie A matches and have the best offensive performance with an average of 2.5+ goals per match.
- They are particularly strong at home: they have scored in every one of their last 31 league matches.
- Their defense is solid, having conceded no goals in their last four league games.
- Weaknesses:
- They tend to make mistakes against big teams (e.g., losses to AC Milan and Juventus).
Bologna:
- Strengths:
- They are stable away from home, having only lost twice this season.
- They have a good attacking form: they have scored in 13 consecutive matches at San Siro.
- Weaknesses:
- They often lose points in the final minutes of matches (conceding 5 goals after the 90th minute).
- Defensive errors (e.g., handballs and penalties from VAR decisions).
Player Statistics
Internazionale:
- Lautaro Martínez: 6 goals and 2 assists, a key player in their attacks.
- Marcus Thuram: 12 goals, in strong form.
- Defense: Goalkeeper Yann Sommer has saved the team from 15.4 expected goals.
Bologna:
- Santiago Castro: 4 goals and 4 assists, a crucial attacking player.
- Jhon Lucumí: Important defender, but currently suspended.
- Midfield: Remo Freuler and Sam Beukema perform consistently well in defense and passing.
Expert Opinion
- Inter will likely control the tempo of the match, while Bologna will rely on counter-attacks.
- Bologna’s late-game point losses indicate systemic issues.
- Inter is expected to have over 60% possession.
Low-Risk Tips:
- Inter Win (Probability: 64.3%): Based on data and form, they are clear favorites.
Odds: 1.52 – Kelly: 3%
- Under 3.5 Goals (Probability: 70.3%): Inter’s defense is strong, and Bologna is unlikely to score multiple goals.
Odds: 1.40 – Kelly: 2%
Interesting Observations
- Bologna regularly makes mistakes in the final minutes, which could be decisive.
- Lautaro Martínez and Marcus Thuram are in excellent form, while Bologna’s best defender, Jhon Lucumí, is absent.
- Inter’s 31-match home goal streak indicates remarkable stability.
Based on the data and analysis, Inter’s victory is the most likely outcome, but it’s worth paying attention to Bologna’s late-game errors, which may offer betting opportunities.