ENGLAND: EFL Cup – Semi-finals
Team Stats Analysis
Arsenal Team Stats:
- Wins: Arsenal has won every EFL Cup match so far (3-0 against Preston, 3-2 against Crystal Palace).
- Possession: Average high possession rate (71-77%), indicating attacking dominance and a controlled playing style.
- Formation: Primarily uses 4-3-3, which facilitates fast attacks and width utilization.
- Injuries: Bukayo Saka, Raheem Sterling, and other key players are injured, potentially reducing Arsenal’s attacking strength.
Newcastle Team Stats:
- Wins: Newcastle has won all their EFL Cup matches so far, including a tight 3-1 victory over Brentford.
- Possession: Mixed, but a low 35% possession against Chelsea shows they are capable of adapting and playing effective counter-attacking football.
- Formation: Also uses 4-3-3, but the absence of Bruno Guimarães and Fabian Schär is a significant blow.
- Winning Streak: Six consecutive wins in all competitions, showing the team’s momentum.
Player Stats Analysis
Arsenal Players:
- Gabriel Jesus: 4 assists and 1 goal in three matches; a key player and driving force in attacks.
- Ethan Nwaneri: Young talent with 3 goals in the EFL Cup, but uncertain due to injury.
- Jorginho: Performs well in midfield, providing solid defensive work and passing.
Newcastle Players:
- Alexander Isak: A key forward who has been effective in recent matches.
- Joelinton: A reliable midfielder, strong in both defense and supporting roles.
- Fabian Schär: His current form indicates that his absence will weaken the defense significantly.
Interesting Insights from the Analysis:
- Arsenal’s home unbeaten streak is highly impressive.
- Newcastle has scored at least two goals in their last 8 matches, showing the effectiveness of their attacking play.
- Arsenal has a 9.92% chance of winning 2-1 (the most likely result), while Newcastle has a 17.82% chance of winning.
Betting Tips and Analysis
Low-Risk Tip:
- Both Teams to Score (56.92%)
Explanation: Both Arsenal and Newcastle have capable attackers, and they have been consistently scoring in recent matches.
Probability: 57%.
Odds: 1.58 – Kelly: 2%
Medium-Risk Tip:
- Arsenal Win (61.9%)
Explanation: Arsenal is unbeaten at home, and Newcastle will be missing several key players.
Probability: 62%.
Odds: 1.67 – Kelly: 1%
Summary
Based on the data and expert analysis, Arsenal is more likely to win at home, but Newcastle’s attacking form could pose a threat. It’s recommended to focus on lower-risk options, such as both teams to score and Arsenal to win.