SPAIN: LaLiga – Round 12
Team and Player Statistics
Valencia:
- Team Performance:
- Valencia has only secured two victories in the season out of 17 matches, currently sitting in 19th place in the standings.
- Their home record is better than their away performance (9 points from 8 home games).
- Weak attacking play: The xG (expected goals) is low across all matches, especially against Atlético Madrid (xG: 0.1).
- Key Players:
- Cristhian Mosquera: The defender with the most playing time, but his xGA (expected goals against) value is high, indicating defensive issues.
- Luis Rioja: 3 goals and 2 assists, he is one of their most important attacking players.
- Diego López: 2 assists with good finishing ability.
Real Madrid:
- Team Performance:
- 13 victories in 18 matches this season (48.3% win probability).
- Strong attacking play, with high xG values (e.g., 2.5 against Las Palmas).
- Key Players:
- Kylian Mbappé: 10 goals in 16 matches, exceptional finishing (xG/90: 1.11).
- Federico Valverde: 5 goals and 2 assists, a versatile midfielder.
- Thibaut Courtois: A reliable goalkeeper with solid performances across 15 matches.
Additional Analysis (Based on Expert Insights)
- The expert analysis highlighted that historically, Valencia performs well at home against Real Madrid (their last two home matches: 1 win, 1 draw).
- Real Madrid is expected to dominate possession (usually above 60%), while Valencia will rely on counter-attacks.
Betting Tips
Low Risk:
- Real Madrid to Win (Probability: 48.3%)
- Based on statistics and form, Real Madrid is clearly the favorite.
- Valencia’s home defense is weak, while Madrid’s attacking strength is strong.
Odds: 1.41 – Kelly: 3%
Medium Risk:
- Under 3.5 Goals (Probability: 75.37%)
- Both teams have lower xG values, and Valencia’s defensive style suggests fewer goals.
Odds: 1.44 – Kelly: 2%
- Mbappé to Score (Probability: 44.17%)
- Due to Mbappé’s great form, he is likely to score in this match.
Odds: 1.80 – Kelly: 1%
Surprising Statistical Facts:
- Real Madrid wins only 44% of their away matches, which is lower than their home record.
- In Valencia’s defense, Cristhian Mosquera has made a notable 95 ball recoveries, but with poor efficiency.