Manchester City – Everton

ENGLAND: Premier League – Matchday 18

Team Statistics Comparison:

1. Manchester City:
   • Formation: Commonly uses 4-2-3-1 and 3-2-4-1 formations.
   • Performance: Only 1 win in the last 12 matches, indicating a significant slump this season.
   • Goal Difference: Averages 1.8 goals per match but shows inconsistency in defense.
   • Home Performance: Strong, unbeaten against Everton at home in the last 13 matches.
   • Tactical Advantages: High ball possession (up to 75% in some matches), strong attacking capabilities like Haaland.
2. Everton:
   • Formation: Typically plays in a 4-2-3-1 formation.
   • Performance: Improving form; three consecutive clean sheets.
   • Goals: Weak attacking unit, with only 14 goals scored this season.
   • Defense: Among the best defensive stats in Europe’s top five leagues recently.

Key Player Statistics:

• Manchester City:
  • Erling Haaland: 13 goals and 1 assist, highly efficient with 0.76 goals per match.
  • Bernardo Silva: Creative midfielder, 4 assists, and strong ball possession stats.
  • Weaknesses: Injuries (e.g., Ruben Dias) and inconsistent defensive form.
• Everton:
  • Jordan Pickford: Solid goalkeeper, with a 0.34 goal difference against xG over 16 matches.
  • Dominic Calvert-Lewin: Main striker but in a 12-match goal drought.
  • Weaknesses: Poor conversion of goal-scoring opportunities, low xG values.

Betting Tips by Risk Level:

Low Risk:

1. Manchester City to Win
   • Justification: Dominant at home against Everton; Everton’s attack is weak.
   • Probability: 76.8%.

Odds: 1.39 – Kelly: 4%

2. Over 2.5 Goals in the Match
   • Justification: City often engages in high-scoring matches, even against strong defenses.
   • Probability: 72.76%.

Odds: 1.57 – Kelly: 2%

Medium Risk:

3. Haaland to Score
   • Justification: Based on his outstanding form and stats, he is highly likely to score.
   • Probability: 65%.

Odds: 1.58 – Kelly: 1%

Surprising Insights:

1. Everton’s Clean Sheets: Everton has kept clean sheets in their last three matches, a rare achievement in an attack-oriented league.
2. City Boxing Day Streak: City has always won at home on Boxing Day, while Everton remains unbeaten away during this period.
3. Erling Haaland: Despite a higher-than-average xG, he has fewer assists, indicating City’s diverse attacking strategies.

Conclusion:

Manchester City is a strong favorite, particularly at home. Everton’s current defensive form is noteworthy, but their attack struggles significantly. The match is likely to end with a Manchester City victory, while bets should focus on goals and Haaland’s performance.