Internazionale – Como

ITALY: Serie A – Round 17

Team Statistics and Player Analysis

Data shows significant differences between Internazionale and Como in both team and player statistics.

Key Statistics for Internazionale:

1. Performance:
   • Internazionale has been consistently strong during the 2024 season, especially at home, securing convincing wins (e.g., 4-0 against Atalanta).
   • Average ball possession: 55–68%, reflecting a dominant playing style.
2. Goal Production:
   • Marcus Thuram: 11 goals and 3 assists. He could be a key player against Como.
   • Team’s overall xG: ~2, indicating high efficiency.
3. Defensive Metrics:
   • Low goals conceded average (GA): ~0.8 per match, with a stable defensive structure.
4. Notable Players:
   • Lautaro Martínez: Despite recent subdued form, his home stats are strong.
   • Henrikh Mkhitaryan and Federico Dimarco: Creative midfielders critical for building attacks.

Key Statistics for Como:

1. Performance:
   • Weak finishing: Average of 0.8 goals per match, with xG (1.2) and xGA (1.6) both below par.
   • Ball possession: ~44–56%, showing they are often forced into defensive play.
2. Goal Production and Defense:
   • Patrick Cutrone and Nico Paz are the most dangerous attackers, but their efficiency fluctuates.
   • Defensive weaknesses: Low tackling efficiency and frequent free kicks conceded to opponents.
3. Coaching Tactics:
   • Cesc Fábregas, as a rookie coach, is working to establish a stable structure but struggles with tactical adjustments.

Surprising Facts:

• Number of shot attempts: Both teams are among the league leaders (Inter: 233, Como: 232).
• Internazionale’s past dominance: 12 consecutive home wins against Como.

Low-Risk Tip:

1. Internazionale Win (Probability: ~63.8%)
   • Given their strong form and home performance, a win is highly likely.
   • Tactical dominance and strong wing play (Dimarco, Dumfries).

Odds: 1.40 – Kelly Criterion: 3%

Medium-Risk Tip:

2. Under 3.5 Goals (Probability: ~68.3%)
   • While Inter has a strong attacking lineup, Como tends to focus on defense against stronger teams.

Odds: 1.52 – Kelly Criterion: 2%

Additional Notes:

• Number of Cards: Como tends to foul frequently, especially under pressure, so 4+ yellow cards are likely.
• Corner Kicks: Internazionale’s average corners per match: ~7–8.

All data supports Internazionale’s chances, particularly at home. While Como could deliver a positive surprise, they are unlikely to pose a significant threat.