ITALY: Serie A – Matchday 17
Fiorentina:
- Form: Fiorentina is extremely dominant at home: unbeaten in 19 matches, with 13 victories. This is their best streak in 16 years.
- Attacks: They have scored 32 goals at home this season, the most in Serie A.
- Defensive stability: They have conceded only 2 goals in the second halves of matches this season, showing remarkable defensive discipline.
- Historical advantage: Fiorentina has won 16 times and scored 49 goals in home matches against Udinese over the past two decades, giving them a significant psychological edge.
Udinese:
- Form: They have shown weaker performance, especially away from home: 8 losses in their last 12 matches.
- Attacking and defensive issues: Just one win in the last seven matches, and their defense is often vulnerable.
- Historical disadvantage: Poor results in Florence.
Player Statistics
Key players for Fiorentina:
- Moise Kean: 9 goals this season, one of Serie A’s top scorers.
- Robin Gosens: 2 goals and 2 assists on the left wing; a key player in building attacks.
- Defenders: The team’s defense statistics show they allow very few shots, especially in the second half.
Key players for Udinese:
- Lorenzo Lucca: Their top scorer, though he lacks support.
- Jaka Bijol: The pillar of their defense, but Udinese’s defensive stability can be shaken.
- Maduka Okoye (goalkeeper): Good save percentage, but he cannot always compensate for the team’s defensive weaknesses.
Key Points:
- Fiorentina’s home dominance: Udinese has won three of the last seven encounters, which is surprising against such a strong home team.
- Statistical probabilities: Fiorentina has a 74.51% chance of winning, while Udinese’s chance is only 9.21%.
Betting Recommendations
Low-risk tip:
- Fiorentina win: 74.51% chance, especially dominant at home.
- Explanation: Unbeaten streak, successful attacks.
Odds: 1.63 – Kelly: 4%
Medium-risk tips:
- Under 3.5 goals in the match: 63.45% chance.
- Explanation: Udinese’s attack is weak, and Fiorentina is strong defensively.
Odds: 1.42 – Kelly: 1%
- Fiorentina to score more than 1.5 goals: 68.26% chance.
- Explanation: Fiorentina is highly potent at home.
Odds: 1.63 – Kelly: 2%
Final Remarks
Based on the statistics, Fiorentina is dominant at home, while Udinese has shown weaker form away. The match result is likely to go in Fiorentina’s favor. However, it might be interesting to follow Udinese’s possible attacking attempts, and there is potential for betting on alternative markets (yellow cards, corners).