NETHERLANDS: Eredivisie – Matchday 5
Team and Player Performance
Ajax:
- Team Statistics:
- Ajax is currently on an 11-match unbeaten streak in the Eredivisie (9 wins, 2 draws).
- They are flawless at home, winning all six matches, averaging over 2 goals per game.
- Their xG (expected goals) consistently surpasses their opponents’ xGA (expected goals against), indicating solid attacking and defensive performances.
- Player Statistics:
- Wout Weghorst secured victory with two goals in the last match, making him a key player in attack.
- Defender Jorrel Hato boasts an impressive xG+/- (1.35 per match), outstanding among defenders.
- Defensive stats are also strong: Devyne Rensch and Josip Šutalo win a significant percentage of duels.
Utrecht:
- Team Statistics:
- Utrecht remains unbeaten in their last 9 away games, showing confidence on the road.
- However, their defense is a weak point, conceding the most goals (17) among the top 6 teams.
- Their xGA (17.6) is significantly higher than Ajax’s, signaling a vulnerable defense.
- Player Statistics:
- Siebe Horemans stands out with consistent defensive performances, while Souffian El Karouani leads in ball recoveries.
- However, they lack a standout goal scorer, which poses a challenge in attack.
Recommendations and Betting Tips
Low-Risk Tips:
- Ajax Win (60.5% Probability):
- Ajax’s impeccable home performance and Utrecht’s defensive struggles make this a strong choice.
- Probability: 60.5%.
Odds: 1.45 – Kelly: 2%
- Over 2.5 Goals in the Match (53.1%):
- Ajax has scored 2 or more goals in their last 5 league games.
- Utrecht matches tend to be high-scoring, primarily due to their weak defense.
Odds: 1.49 – Kelly: 2%
Medium-Risk Tips:
- Both Teams to Score (50.7%):
- Utrecht’s attacking play works well on the road, despite Ajax’s strong defense.
- Probability: 50.7%.
Odds: 1.67 – Kelly: 1%
- Wout Weghorst to Score:
- His form and crucial role in the attack make him a likely goal scorer.
Odds: 2.37 – Kelly: 0.5%
Key Insights
- Ajax’s Dominance at Home: They dominate not only in the Eredivisie but also on the European stage at Johan Cruijff Arena.
- Utrecht’s Weak Defense but Strong Away Record: Despite conceding many goals, their unbeaten away streak is noteworthy.
- Impact of Injuries: Both teams face missing key players, but Ajax’s deeper squad can offset the losses.