ENGLAND: Premier League – Round 13
Team Statistics
Nottingham Forest:
- Offensive and Defensive Metrics:
- Nottingham has averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.1 goals conceded over 12 Premier League matches.
- Defensive performances have worsened recently, with 6 goals conceded in the last two matches against Arsenal and Newcastle.
- They perform well at home against newly promoted teams, with four consecutive wins.
- Formation and Chance Conversion:
- The team predominantly plays in a 4-2-3-1 formation.
- Chris Wood is the top scorer with 8 goals.
- XG (Expected Goals):
- Average XG is 1.2, which dropped after the 0.4 XG against Arsenal.
Ipswich Town:
- Offensive and Defensive Metrics:
- Ipswich is unbeaten in their last three matches (1 win, 2 draws).
- Strong away performance, having failed to score only once.
- Formation and Defensive Weaknesses:
- Predominant formation: 4-2-3-1.
- They have not kept a clean sheet in 8 matches but show variety in their attacks.
- XG:
- Poor chance conversion; average XG is 0.6.
Player Statistics
Nottingham Forest:
- Top Attacker:
- Chris Wood (8 goals, 0.33 goals per match).
- Defensive Strengths:
- Nikola Milenković and Murillo have a strong aerial duel win rate of around 60%.
Ipswich Town:
- Top Attacker:
- Liam Delap (6 goals), but a low aerial duel win rate (32%).
- Defensive Issues:
- Leif Davis and the defensive unit show a poor XGA (Expected Goals Against: -13.3).
Recommendations
Moderate-Risk Tips:
- Nottingham Win:
- Probability: 58.6%.
- Rationale: Nottingham has a stronger attacking lineup, while Ipswich tends to concede goals.
Odds: 1.76 – Kelly: 1%
- Both Teams to Score:
- Probability: 56.5%.
- Rationale: Both teams score regularly, with Ipswich effective even away.
Odds: 1.84 – Kelly: 1%
- Chris Wood to Score:
- Probability: 50%.
- Rationale: Wood is in outstanding form.
Odds: 2.26 – Kelly: 0.5%
Interesting Facts
- Historical Data:
- Ipswich last won at the City Ground in 1999.
- Form and Injuries:
- Nottingham is missing key players like Morgan Gibbs-White and Danilo.
- Ipswich’s Defensive Weakness:
- They have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 8 matches.
These insights and recommendations offer a valuable foundation for analysis and betting strategies.