Dinamo Zagreb – Borussia Dortmund

EUROPE: Champions League – Group Stage – Round 5

1. Team Statistics

Dinamo Zagreb:

• Form and Performance:
  • In the domestic league, they stand in third place with 25 points. They have lost only once in their last 11 matches.
  • Their home form is weak, with no wins in their last three home games.
• Statistical Highlights:
  • They have managed to finish only one of their last six home matches without conceding.
  • Their goal-scoring ability is sporadic, averaging 1.8 xG per match.

Borussia Dortmund:

• Form and Performance:
  • An inconsistent season: out of their first eight matches, they won six, but out of the last nine, they lost five.
  • Their away record is critically poor, suffering six consecutive defeats.
• Statistical Highlights:
  • They average 66% possession away, but their goal-scoring efficiency is low.
  • They generated 2.0 xG against Sturm Graz but scored only one goal.

2. Player Statistics

Dinamo Zagreb:

• Key Players:
  • Martin Baturina: 1 goal and 1 assist in 4 matches, with a high ball recovery rate (25).
  • Josip Mišić: Brings stability to midfield, but his expected goal contribution (xG) is low.
• Weaknesses:
  • Many players are weak in aerial duels: average success rate is 33%.
  • Injuries: The absence of key players like Bruno Petković and Juan Cordoba could significantly impact their attacking play.

Borussia Dortmund:

• Key Players:
  • Serhou Guirassy: In outstanding form, with 3 goals and 2 assists in 4 matches.
  • Emre Can: A stable defensive midfielder, with 60% success in aerial duels.
• Weaknesses:
  • Defensive mistakes away from home: they have conceded 18 goals in their last 6 matches.
  • Injuries: The absence of Niklas Süle and Karim Adeyemi has had a significant impact on both defense and attack.

Betting Tips

Low Risk:

1. Both Teams to Score (66.5%):
   • Both teams have effective attacks, but their defenses are vulnerable.

Odds: 1.58 – Kelly: 2%

2. Over 2.5 Goals in the Match (65.65%):
   • Based on current statistics, both teams tend to concede a lot of goals.

Odds: 1.56 – Kelly: 2%

Surprises and Interesting Facts:

1. Statistical Anomalies:
   • Dinamo Zagreb has scored more goals from fewer xG, demonstrating efficiency.
   • Dortmund’s away form is significantly weaker than their home form.
2. Impact of Injuries:
   • Both teams have lost key players, which could affect the dynamics of the match.
3. Probable Results:
   • Dinamo Zagreb Win: 2-1 (8.29%)
   • Draw: 1-1 (9.72%)
   • Dortmund Win: 1-2 (8.14%)

Summary

Based on the pre-match statistical data, Dinamo Zagreb is slightly more likely to win at home, but their chances are not overwhelming. Dortmund’s poor away form presents risks that could balance the match’s outcome. It’s advisable to focus on safer betting alternatives, such as goals or team performance.