Crvena zvezda – VfB Stuttgart

EUROPE: Champions League – Group Stage – 5th Round

Team Statistics Analysis

1. Crvena zvezda:
   • Goal Difference and Performance: The team has scored an average of 1.16 goals, while conceding 3 goals per match in international games. This indicates weak defense, especially highlighted by the 16 goals conceded.
   • xG and xGA (Expected Goals): Their xG value (0.67) is lower than their average goals scored, suggesting they rarely create scoring opportunities but are efficient when they do. The xGA (2.75) highlights the defensive shortcomings, especially against stronger opponents.
   • Possession: Their average possession is 39.8%, reflecting a defensive playing style with few attacking initiatives.
2. VfB Stuttgart:
   • Goal Difference and Performance: Stuttgart averages 0.75 goals per match and concedes 1.5 goals, presenting a more balanced image, though it points to poor attacking efficiency.
   • xG and xGA: Their xG value (1.77) indicates they create more chances but have poor finishing. The xGA (1.52) suggests an acceptable defensive performance.
   • Possession: Stuttgart holds an average of 58.75% possession, indicating a more offensive mindset, although their efficiency still needs improvement.

Player Statistics Analysis

1. Crvena zvezda:
   • Their top scorer is Cherif Ndiaye, the league’s top scorer. However, the attack has been weak on the international stage.
   • Felicio Milson scored in both international matches, which could be crucial against Stuttgart.
   • Their defense has a low AerialDuelsWon% (around 4.5%), which could be a weakness against Stuttgart’s tall attackers.
2. VfB Stuttgart:
   • Ermedin Demirovic creates most of the team’s chances and plays an important role in the attack.
   • Enzo Millot stands out as a creative player, providing most of the key passes for the team.
   • Defensively, their AerialDuelsWon percentage is higher, which could help in defending against Crvena zvezda’s aerial attacks.

Surprising Factors:

• Crvena zvezda:
  • Although strong at home, the 16 goals conceded is the worst in the Champions League, which contrasts sharply with their dominance in the domestic league.
• Stuttgart:
  • Their first European appearance in a long time has been balanced, but they exceeded expectations by defeating Juventus.

Betting Recommendations (By Risk Categories)

Low-Risk Tips:

1. Both Teams to Score: Probability: ~65%
   • Explanation: Both teams have weak defenses, and Crvena zvezda is often successful at home.

Odds: 1.63 – Kelly: 3%

Medium-Risk Tips:

2. Crvena zvezda +1 Asian Handicap: Probability: ~65%
   • Explanation: This bet wins if Crvena zvezda gets at least a draw. If they lose by 1 goal, the stake is refunded. They will want to improve their international performance at home, while Stuttgart rarely wins away.

Odds: 1.66 – Kelly: 2%

Additional Observations

• The match is crucial for both teams, as advancing from the group stage is at stake.
• Crvena zvezda’s home field puts great pressure on opponents, but Stuttgart’s superior physical preparation could counterbalance this.

Given the above, the match is expected to be close and exciting, with the outcome depending on various factors.