AUSTRIA: Bundesliga – Round 12
Team and Player Performance Trends
Sturm Graz
Sturm Graz is currently in good form and leads the Austrian Bundesliga standings, with an unbeaten streak of five matches, including four wins and one draw. They are strong at home, with five wins and just one loss in their six home matches. Mika Biereth stands out in attack, having scored eight goals, including several key goals that opened the scoring in matches this season.
Rapid Wien
Rapid Wien is also on an impressive unbeaten streak, having gone seven matches without a loss (four wins, three draws). In their previous encounter against Sturm Graz, they secured a 1-0 victory, with Dion Drena Beljo scoring the decisive goal. Beljo leads the team with six goals, five of which were the first goals of the match, providing crucial momentum for the team.
Key Factors and Statistics
Defensive Statistics
- Sturm Graz Defense: Sturm Graz has allowed an average of 1.18 goals per match, demonstrating stable defensive performance. Their goalkeeper, Kjell Scherpen, has a save rate of 65.8% and has kept three clean sheets.
- Rapid Wien Defense: Rapid’s goalkeepers, Niklas Hedl and Paul Gartler, hold a combined save rate of 66.7% and have achieved three clean sheets. Their goals-against average is 1.0 per match, indicating more stability than Sturm and reflecting their solid defense.
Offensive Statistics and Expected Goals (xG)
- Sturm Graz Offense: Sturm’s Biereth and Kiteishvili have proven effective in attack. Biereth has a 0.82 goals-per-shot ratio and a shot accuracy of 70.8%, which is impressive. Their xG metrics are also strong, indicating improved performance in recent matches.
- Rapid Wien Offense: Rapid’s top scorer, Beljo, averages 4.3 shots per match, with a shot accuracy of 52.4%. The team has scored 15 goals, frequently finding the net even in away games.
Low-Risk Bet:
- Both Teams to Score (BTTS) – Probability: 70%
- With Sturm Graz’s strong home form and Rapid’s unbeaten streak and scoring record in away games, there is a high likelihood that both teams will score. Sturm Graz’s attacking style at home and Rapid’s productivity, led by Beljo, support this outcome. Low Risk
Odds: 1.51 – Safe Kelly: 2%
Medium-Risk Bet:
- Total Goals Over 2.5 – Probability: 60%
- Both teams are capable of effective attacks, and based on recent results and their scoring statistics, three or more goals are expected. Sturm has scored two or more goals in five home matches, and Rapid has shown scoring ability in away games as well. Medium Risk
Odds: 1.61 – Safe Kelly: 2%
Summary
Given Sturm Graz’s current form and home strength, along with Rapid Wien’s solid away record, the match is expected to be well-contested, with both teams likely to score. Based on the combined attacking and defensive stats, the “Both Teams to Score (BTTS)” option appears to be the safest choice. Sturm is likely to avoid a loss at home, making the 1X bet market another low-risk option.