Monaco – Crvena Zvezda

EUROPE: Champions League – Group Stage – Round 3

Analysis of Monaco

Monaco started their Champions League campaign well, beating Barcelona 2-1 and drawing 2-2 against Dinamo Zagreb. The team has strong attacking play, supported by xG indicators: 1.3 xG against Barcelona and 1.9 xG against Dinamo Zagreb. This shows that Monaco can create chances and put pressure on their opponents, especially at home, where they had 56% possession against Barcelona. Players like Denis Zakaria and Vanderson play a key role in the team’s attacking and forward movements, with Zakaria already scoring 2 goals in this tournament.

The team’s defense is also notable, as they have conceded only 1.5 goals per match on average, supported by their xGA (expected goals against) indicator, which ranged between 0.4 and 1.0. However, goalkeeper Philipp Köhn’s performance has been less convincing, with a 25% save rate, which could be a concern if opponents take many shots on goal.

Analysis of Crvena Zvezda

Crvena Zvezda started their Champions League season with struggles, losing 1-2 to Benfica and suffering a 0-4 defeat to Inter. Their xG stats are not very encouraging, as they managed only 1.0 and 0.5 xG in the two matches, showing they are finding it difficult to create dangerous chances. Their defense is also weak, averaging 3.0 goals conceded per match, largely due to the 0-4 loss to Inter.

Goalkeeper Omri Glazer’s performance is particularly concerning, with only a 50% save rate and 6 goals conceded in two matches. This highlights defensive weaknesses that Monaco’s attackers could easily exploit.

Motivation and Injuries

Monaco is highly motivated to play at home, where they have been successful in the Champions League so far. In contrast, Crvena Zvezda is under significant pressure after starting the tournament with two losses and performing poorly away from home.

In terms of injuries, Monaco’s key players, such as Breel Embolo and Aleksandr Golovin, will be available, while Crvena Zvezda’s key player, Milson, has only spent a short time on the field so far but could still be capable of launching dangerous attacks.

Low-risk betting tip:

  1. Monaco -1 Asian Handicap (Our bet wins if Monaco wins by 2 goals. If they win by 1 goal, our stake is refunded) – Monaco is stronger and in better form at home, while Crvena Zvezda has struggled away. Based on previous results and statistics, Monaco is expected to dominate the match. Probability: 70%

Odds: 1.56 – Safe Kelly: 4%

Conclusion

Based on statistical analysis and expert opinions, Monaco is favored to win, and it is likely they will score multiple goals.

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