ITALY: Serie A – Round 8
Verona Statistical Analysis
Verona’s current season form is fluctuating, with 3 wins and 4 losses in 7 matches, scoring 11 goals and conceding 12. The team’s expected goals (xG) are 8.6, while the expected goals against (xGA) is 10.2, showing that they conceded more goals than statistically expected. Their top scorers, such as Tengstedt (3 goals, 2.7 xG) and Mosquera (3 goals, 1.9 xG), are in decent form, with Mosquera notably outperforming his expected goals (+1.1).
Defensively, the team shows mixed results, as goalkeeper Montipò’s 66.7% save percentage is not the worst, but the 12 goals conceded highlight defensive instability. Players like Dawidowicz and Coppola provide stability in defense, but creative midfielders like Lazović and Belahyane stand out in supporting the attack.
Monza Statistical Analysis
Monza is having a tough season, scoring only 5 goals in 7 matches while conceding 9. Their xG is 3.3, indicating poor attacking efficiency. Their top scorer, Mota (2 goals, 0.9 xG), is very efficient with his chances. However, their defense isn’t strong either, with an xGA of 7.8, suggesting they’ve conceded more goals than expected by the stats.
Team Comparison and Trends
Both teams show vulnerabilities in defense, and although Verona is stronger in attack, Monza’s defense can occasionally tighten up, especially with the help of goalkeeper Pizzignacco, who boasts a 71.4% save percentage, better than Montipò’s. Monza’s attackers lack consistency, while Verona’s creative midfielders offer better support in attack.
Low-Risk Tip:
- Verona – Draw No Bet (Asian Handicap 0)
- Given Verona’s home performance and Monza’s weak away form, Verona stands a reasonable chance of winning or at least securing a draw.
- Probability: 65%
Odds: 1.62 – Safe Kelly: 2%
- Verona over 4.5 corners (low risk)
- Verona applies significant attacking pressure, especially at home, often resulting in more corners. They average more than 5 corners per game this season.
- Probability: 70%
Odds: 1.68 – Safe Kelly: 3%
- Over 3.5 yellow cards (medium risk)
- Both teams are strong in midfield battles, and based on statistics, both sides tend to commit fouls. Expect the referee to issue multiple yellow cards based on previous games.
- Probability: 65%
Odds: 1.47 – Safe Kelly: 1%
Summary
Verona’s home advantage, stronger attack, and Monza’s unstable defense suggest Verona will likely score 1-2 goals. Monza may not completely miss out on scoring, but given their attackers’ inefficiency, the “both teams to score” market is worth considering. Expect more corners and fouls from Verona, leading to more corners and yellow cards.