BELGIUM: Jupiler League – Matchday 11
1. Player Form and Absences
Leuven is in weaker form, having lost three of their last five matches, while Antwerp is performing well, confidently securing points, including a recent 3-0 win over Cercle Brugge. Key players for Antwerp include Vincent Janssen, who has scored 8 goals, and Tjaronn Chery, who stands out with 6 goals and 2 assists. For Leuven, attacking players Ignace N’Dri and Youssef Maziz have been less effective, with a combined total of 4 goals this season. Injuries and rotation due to injuries could also be a key factor, with Antwerp’s crucial defenders, like Toby Alderweireld, bringing stability to the team.
2. Defensive and Goalkeeping Performance
Leuven has one of the weakest defenses in the league, conceding an average of 1.5 goals per match with a total of 15 goals allowed. Their goalkeeper, Tobe Leysen, has a low save rate of just 55.9%. In contrast, Antwerp’s goalkeeper, Senne Lammens, is in much better form, with a save rate of 88.2% and a +5.9 PSxG (Post-shot Expected Goals saved difference), indicating he has saved more goals than expected.
3. Attacking Efficiency and xG (Expected Goals)
Antwerp is much more effective in attack, averaging 2 goals per match, while Leuven’s attacking output is modest, with an xG of 1.0. Antwerp’s forwards, including Vincent Janssen and Jacob Ondrejka, have high xG values, whereas Leuven’s attackers, such as N’Dri and Maertens, are less threatening.
4. Expert Analysis and Motivation
The analysis indicates that Antwerp is stronger in both form and motivation. Experts highlight that Antwerp’s championship ambitions make victory crucial for them, while Leuven is currently focused on stabilizing in mid-table. This difference in motivation could be a decisive factor.
Low-risk tips:
- Antwerp Draw No Bet (Asian Handicap 0): Antwerp shows dominant attacking play and stable defense, while Leuven is in weaker form, making an Antwerp victory likely. Probability: 65%
Odds: 1.56 – Safe Kelly: 5%
- Antwerp to score first: Antwerp generally starts matches strongly, while Leuven tends to start slowly. Probability: 70%
Odds: 1.79 – Safe Kelly: 4%
Medium-risk tip:
- Vincent Janssen to score: Janssen is in excellent form, with 8 goals this season showcasing his sharpness in front of goal. Probability: 55%
Odds: 2.70 – Safe Kelly: 1%
Closing thoughts
Based on Antwerp’s current form and statistics, they have a strong chance of winning, particularly with their solid defense and efficient attack. Leuven’s weaker defense and Antwerp’s high motivation are also important factors when predicting the outcome of the match.