Netherlands: Eredivisie – Round 9, October 19, 2024
Statistical Analysis:
AZ Alkmaar is currently one of the stronger teams in the Dutch Eredivisie, though their recent form has been inconsistent. Their xG (expected goals) value is 16.2, while their expected goals against (xGA) is 7.8, indicating they can dominate games to a greater extent, especially at home. Players like Troy Parrott (5 goals, xG: 5.1) and Ibrahim Sadiq (4 goals, xG: 2.0) are key contributors to their attacks. Parrott is particularly effective at finishing, as his non-penalty goals are close to his xG, showing a balanced performance.
The team’s pass accuracy is also strong at 80.9%, while defensively, players like David Møller Wolfe and Peer Koopmeiners are able to stop many attacks. Alkmaar is generally attack-minded at home, but recent results, such as the 0-1 loss against Fortuna Sittard, show that they can be vulnerable, especially against a stronger team like PSV.
PSV Eindhoven has shown impressive form, winning all their league matches so far. The team has created a total of 44 goal-scoring chances this season, and their attacking unit is particularly efficient. Luuk de Jong and Ricardo Pepi are especially dangerous in the attack, but Malik Tillman (4 goals, xG: 2.9) also plays a key role. Their above-average xG (19.3) indicates that they are able to apply constant pressure on their opponents.
PSV’s defense is also solid, having conceded only 5 goals in the league so far. Goalkeeper Walter Benítez has a save percentage of 76.5%, showing strong defensive efficiency. The team can control matches with an average of 70% possession and can launch quick counter-attacks.
Expert Analysis:
PSV’s motivation is particularly high as they are fighting for the league title, and a win against AZ could be critical for them. However, Alkmaar has the potential to surprise at home, especially if PSV’s defense wavers at times.
My Tips:
Low-Risk Tips:
- PSV Win – PSV Eindhoven remains unbeaten, and with their strong attack and stable defense, they are more likely to win this match. Probability: 65%.
- Risk: Low
Odds: 1.78 – Safe Kelly: 2%
- Over 2.5 Goals – Both teams have strong attacking units, and many goals have been scored in their recent matches. Probability: 70%.
- Risk: Low
Odds: 1.56 – Safe Kelly: 3%
Based on the analysis, the match will likely reflect PSV’s dominance, but Alkmaar could achieve a surprising result at home. Low-risk tips focus on a PSV win and over 2.5 goals, while medium-risk tips include both teams scoring and the number of yellow cards.