Borussia Dortmund – St. Pauli

GERMANY: Bundesliga – Round 7

Borussia Dortmund Analysis:

  • Attacking Efficiency: Dortmund averages 2.00 goals per match, with an expected goal (xG) value of 1.67. The key player in the attack is Karim Adeyemi, who has contributed 2 goals and 3 assists. Additionally, Emre Can has scored 2 goals from a defensive midfield position, which is unusually high for his role.
  • Defensive Problems: Dortmund’s defense has conceded 11 goals, averaging 1.83 goals per match, which is weak for a top Bundesliga team. Goalkeeper Gregor Kobel has a save percentage of only 65.4%, which is considered low for an elite team’s keeper.
  • Possession and Passing: One of Dortmund’s strengths is ball possession, averaging 67%, and players like Waldemar Anton boast a pass accuracy of 90.4%, indicating their dominance in passing and controlling the tempo of the game.

St. Pauli Analysis:

  • Weak Offense: St. Pauli has only scored 4 goals in 6 matches (0.67 goals per match), highlighting their struggles in attack. Their expected goals (xG) value is only 0.95 per game, reflecting low-quality chances. Elias Saad and Oladapo Afolayan are the standout performers, but their efforts have not been enough to compensate for the team’s overall attacking weakness.
  • Defensive Stability: St. Pauli has conceded 9 goals, averaging 1.5 goals per match. Goalkeeper Nikola Vasilj has a save percentage of 66.7%, which is not great, but overall, the team seems defensively solid.
  • Low Possession: St. Pauli has averaged only 50% ball possession in their matches, which suggests Dortmund will likely dominate possession in this match.

Motivational Factors:

Analysts point out that Dortmund is highly motivated, especially with their upcoming international appearances in the Champions League. On the other hand, St. Pauli would consider a draw a major success. Their 3-0 victory against Freiburg was impressive, but they are likely to rely on defense and counter-attacks.

Key Players and Formations:

  • Dortmund: Key players include Karim Adeyemi and Julian Brandt, who bring creativity to the attack, while Emre Can strengthens the connection between defense and attack. However, Dortmund’s defense remains vulnerable, especially under pressure.
  • St. Pauli: Jackson Irvine and Eric Smith provide stability in midfield, but forwards like Elias Saad and Afolayan could be crucial if they manage to exploit Dortmund’s defensive weaknesses.

Betting Tips:

  1. Borussia Dortmund win + Over 1.5 goalsLow risk (65%): Based on the statistics and form of both teams, Dortmund is more likely to win, especially at home, where they dominate in possession and attacking play.

Odds: 1.44 – Safe Kelly: 3%

  1. Both teams to scoreMedium risk (60%): Dortmund’s attacking game is strong, but their defense is vulnerable. St. Pauli may score on the counterattack, making it likely that both teams will score.

Odds: 1.77 – Safe Kelly: 2%

  1. Over 3.5 cardsMedium risk (60%): Both teams play a physical game, and the statistics suggest there will be several yellow cards distributed.

Odds: 1.68 – Safe Kelly: 1%

Overall, Dortmund is the favorite, but their defensive vulnerabilities could offer St. Pauli an opportunity to score.

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