EUROPE: UEFA Nations League – A League – Round 3 – October 12, 2024
Statistical Analysis and Expert Opinions
Poland’s Statistical Situation: Poland’s form has been somewhat inconsistent, as they have suffered three losses, secured two wins, and achieved one draw in their last six matches. In their most recent match, they were defeated 1-0 by Croatia, indicating potential defensive issues, especially against strong attacking units.
Poland’s greatest strength remains Robert Lewandowski, who has scored one goal and provided one assist in the two Nations League matches so far. Nicola Zalewski has also played a crucial role, scoring one goal and converting a penalty in two matches. Defensively, Jan Bednarek and Paweł Dawidowicz have been stable, playing 180 minutes in both matches, though both have received yellow cards, reflecting a physically aggressive defensive playstyle.
Portugal’s Statistical Situation: Portugal has performed excellently in the group, winning both of their matches. Their attacking lineup is highly effective, particularly with Cristiano Ronaldo, who has scored two goals in two matches and has the highest number of shots per game in the Portuguese squad (6.82 shots/90 minutes). Bruno Fernandes has also been pivotal, scoring one goal and providing one assist in two matches. The Portuguese defense appears solid as well, with standout performances from Rúben Dias and Diogo Costa, the latter boasting a 71.4% save rate over two matches.
Expert Opinions and Motivation
Experts suggest that Portugal will rely primarily on their attacking strength, as their defense is not their strongest aspect. Nevertheless, under Cristiano Ronaldo’s leadership—who scored his 900th career goal in September—the Portuguese team is motivated and aiming to secure progression in the group stage. Historically, Portugal has performed well against Poland, having not lost to them since 2006.
On the Polish side, Robert Lewandowski remains a key figure, but with Arkadiusz Milik’s absence, their attacking options may be limited. The team’s motivation centers around avoiding relegation from the Nations League, but based on their performance so far, their defensive issues may pose significant challenges, especially against Portugal’s formidable attacking lineup.
Low-Risk Tip:
- Total Goals Over 2 (Asian Goal Line) – Both teams have the potential to score, Poland’s defense is vulnerable, and Portugal’s attack is strong. Based on previous matches, it is likely that more than two goals will be scored.
- Low Risk
Odds: 1.40 – Safe Kelly: 4%
Medium-Risk Tips:
- Portugal to Win (64% Probability) – Portugal’s attacking strength is superior, and Poland’s defense appears weaker based on the statistics. Portugal has won their previous two group matches and are in good form.
- Low Risk
Odds: 1.67 – Safe Kelly: 2%
- Over 3.5 Yellow Cards – Both teams have shown aggressive defensive statistics, with Poland collecting four yellow cards in two matches and Portugal receiving three yellow cards. The tension of the match suggests that several yellow cards can be expected.
- Medium Risk
Odds: 1.52 – Safe Kelly: 1%
Final Thoughts
The statistical analysis suggests that Portugal’s victory is more likely due to their strong attacking prowess and current form, while Poland’s defense may be a weak point. More yellow cards and goals are also expected, as both teams are prone to physical play.