BRAZIL: Serie A – Round 6
Statistical Data and Trends Analysis
Atletico Mineiro
Atlético Mineiro’s home form has been mixed, with 10 out of their last 27 home games ending in draws. This shows they often tend to drop points even at home. According to the xG (expected goals) metric, they are capable of scoring 1.81 goals per match, but opponents are also likely to score at least 1.79 goals against them, suggesting a balanced match. Hulk stands out as a key scorer with 9 goals, paired with a high xG value of 7.3, indicating he effectively converts his chances. Paulinho is also an important player, having scored the second-most goals for the team (6 goals) and currently in good form.
Mineiro maintains possession above 44%, indicating their intent to dominate the match, especially at home. They are active in the attacking third, with players like Hulk and Paulinho excelling at finishing chances.
Grêmio
Grêmio’s current form is also mixed, but attackers like Martin Braithwaite and Franco Cristaldo are noteworthy. Braithwaite has scored 5 goals in the last 8 matches, supported by high xG values (3.6). The team is more effective on counterattacks, as they tend to dominate the ball less than Atletico (usually around 45% possession). This suggests that they will likely rely on counterattacks to create scoring opportunities.
Key Factors and Injuries
According to the analysis, both teams have a few missing players. Atlético Mineiro’s lineup is uncertain due to potential absences of Mariano and Battaglia, while Grêmio’s defense could be weakened by the absence of Pedro Geromel and Gustavo Martins. These absences could influence the match outcome, particularly regarding defensive stability.
Low and Medium-Risk Suggestions
- Both Teams to Score – Medium Risk (60-65%)
Atlético Mineiro tends to score at home, especially through Hulk and Paulinho, but Grêmio is also strong in attack, particularly with Braithwaite and Cristaldo, who regularly find themselves in scoring positions. Statistics suggest both teams are likely to score at least one goal.Odds: 1.95 – Safe Kelly: 2% - Hulk to Score – (60%)
Hulk’s form and statistics make him the most probable scorer for Atlético Mineiro. His high xG value and impact on the game strongly suggest that he will find the net.Odds: 2.58 – Safe Kelly: 0.5%
Summary
The match between Atlético Mineiro and Grêmio is likely to be balanced, with both teams having a good chance to score. Atlético Mineiro’s home advantage and Hulk’s scoring threat are significant factors, but Grêmio’s counterattacking ability could also pose a danger. Recommended bets focus on both teams scoring, corners, and Hulk scoring. Based on statistics and team form, these tips are considered medium or low risk, making them suitable choices for bettors.