EUROPE: UEFA Nations League – B-League – Round 3 – October 10, 2024
Slovenia’s form is largely dependent on key player Benjamin Šeško, who has scored four goals in two matches so far and could be a critical factor in their attack. According to statistics, Slovenia can pose a threat, especially given Šeško’s current form. However, they are weaker away from home and have not won any of their last four away matches in the Nations League (three draws, one loss).
Tactical Analysis:
- Norway’s attacking play: Haaland leads the Norwegian attack and has already scored in the previous two matches. Norway is expected to dominate the attacking phase, particularly due to the vulnerability of the Slovenian defense. Sorloth is also a strong attacking force, although he has been more prominent with assists in recent matches.
- Slovenia’s defense: The return of Jan Oblak in goal is significant as he is an experienced goalkeeper who performs reliably, as the data shows (100% save rate in previous matches). However, the Slovenian defense, led by Drkusić, Bijol, and Janža, has been stable so far, but they will have a particularly difficult task against Haaland.
- Motivation: Both teams are highly motivated, as their goal is to maintain their unbeaten streak and stay close to the top of the group. For Norway, a win is particularly important to solidify their position at home.
Injuries:
- Norway: Martin Ødegaard is missing due to injury, which could weaken the midfield and reduce the effectiveness of organizing the attack.
- Slovenia: Sandi Lovrić and Tomi Horvat are also injured, which could impact the midfield’s ability to organize the game.
Low and Medium-Risk Betting Tips:
- Both teams to score: Statistics and expert analyses suggest that both teams are capable of scoring. Based on the form of Haaland and Šeško, it is likely that both teams will find the net.
- Risk: Low
- Probability: 43%
Odds: 1.90 – Safe Kelly: 1%
- Over 2.5 goals in the match: The attacking strength on both sides is strong, and based on past results, it is expected that at least three goals will be scored in the match.
- Risk: Medium
- Probability: 45%
Odds: 1.85 – Safe Kelly: 1%
- Number of corners: over 8.5: Both sides play offensively and are expected to create many attacking opportunities, increasing the number of corners.
- Risk: Medium
- Probability: 65%
Odds: 1.83 – Safe Kelly: 2%
Summary:
The outcome of the match could be tight, but based on statistics, Norway is the favorite, especially at home and due to Haaland’s form. On the other hand, Slovenia’s attacking play, especially through Šeško, can be dangerous, and they are expected to score. For betting tips, it is advisable to focus on goal-related and corner options, as these carry lower risk compared to the outcome of the match.