EUROPE: UEFA Nations League – League B – Round 3 – October 10, 2024
Statistical Analysis
Austria’s Form and Performance:
Austria has had mixed results in the Nations League so far, with one draw and one loss. Following a 1-1 draw against Slovenia, they suffered a 2-1 defeat against Norway, with Erling Haaland scoring a late winner. Austria has a strong midfield, led by Laimer and Sabitzer. Sabitzer has been particularly outstanding, with 8 shots and 4 on target in two matches, resulting in a 50% accuracy rate. This indicates that Sabitzer’s form could be a key factor.
Austria’s defense, however, could be problematic, as they are missing important defenders, including David Alaba and Kevin Danso. Experts also note that Maximilian Wöber’s injury is a significant disadvantage, potentially weakening their defense. Austria has conceded three goals so far, indicating that their defense is not strong enough, especially against fast attackers.
Kazakhstan’s Form and Performance:
Kazakhstan has so far registered one draw and one loss in the Nations League. They played out a 0-0 draw against Norway before suffering a 3-0 defeat against Slovenia. The team plays with a highly defensive setup and has low attacking efficiency, with only 11 shots over two matches, of which only 2 were on target. This means that their attacks are not very effective, and they have few chances of scoring. Their most dangerous forward, Abat Aymbetov, has yet to find the net, though he remains a key player.
Their defense has been relatively stable, as they kept a clean sheet against Norway, although they collapsed against Slovenia. Their goalkeeper, Igor Shatskiy, has a 72.7% save rate, which is a good performance, and he is likely to play a significant role in this match as well.
Expert Analysis
Experts highlight that Austria will be motivated to win this match as they need the victory to avoid relegation. This motivation, combined with the home-field advantage, suggests that Austria is likely to dominate the game. Experts also note that Kazakhstan’s defense and weak attacking play will likely continue, as they have failed to score in the Nations League so far.
Analysis of Players and Line-ups
Sabitzer and Laimer, who have performed excellently in midfield, are expected to play a key role for Austria. Baumgartner and Arnautović will most likely support Austria’s attacks. However, the defense may be weakened due to injuries, especially if Wöber’s replacement is not up to standard.
Kazakhstan is expected to continue with a 5-4-1 formation, focusing heavily on defense. Zainutdinov and Aymbetov are their most dangerous attackers, though their form suggests they have little chance of breaking through Austria’s defense.
Betting Tips (Low and Medium Risk)
Low-Risk Betting Tip:
- Austria Win + Under 4.5 Goals – Low Risk
- Austria is playing at home, they are motivated, and have a stronger squad. Both teams have emphasized defense, and Kazakhstan shows little attacking potential.
Odds: 1.60 – Safe Kelly: 3%
Medium-Risk Tips:
- Correct Score: Austria 2:0 (11.74% Probability) – Medium Risk
- Based on statistical data, Austria is most likely to win 2-0.
Odds: 5.50 – Safe Kelly: 0.5%
- Under 3.5 Goals in the Match (71.66% Probability) – Medium Risk
- Both teams emphasize defense, and Kazakhstan shows little attacking potential.