ITALY: Serie A – Matchday 7
Fiorentina’s Statistics:
Fiorentina’s performance so far has produced varied results. The team has scored an average of 1.17 goals per game in 6 matches while conceding 1.17 goals. This points to a balanced performance. Notably, the team has achieved an average xG (expected goals) of 3.2 in some matches, indicating that the attacking section is capable of creating chances, although the actual goals scored do not always reflect this. From an xGA (expected goals against) perspective, the team has shown stable defensive work, though the actual number of goals conceded is slightly higher than expected.
Key players for Fiorentina, such as Moise Kean and Robin Gosens, are crucial in the attacks. Moise Kean has scored an average of 0.34 goals per 90 minutes across 5.9 matches, indicating a stable performance. Robin Gosens has recorded a G+A (goals + assists) rate of 0.5 in 4 matches, contributing to both goals and assists.
Milan’s Statistics:
Milan boasts a strong attacking line, scoring 14 goals in 6 matches, averaging 2.33 goals per game. Their xG is also high (10.8), suggesting that Milan’s attackers are capitalizing well on their chances. Christian Pulisic is particularly noteworthy, with 4 goals and 2 assists in 6 matches, yielding a G+A of 1.16 per game. Rafael Leão also stands out, registering 1 goal and 3 assists, while boasting an xG of 1.9, suggesting his ability to create opportunities.
However, Milan’s defense can be vulnerable at times, conceding 7 goals, which averages to 1.17 goals per game. Goalkeeper Mike Maignan has saved an average of 0.02 goals per game, indicating solid performance, though the defense needs to improve.
Expert Analysis:
According to experts, both teams are highly motivated as they fight for crucial points early in the season. Fiorentina’s motivation is particularly strong, given they are playing at home and have a solid attacking lineup. Analyses suggest that Milan can sometimes be more vulnerable on the road, supported by their loss to Parma and draw against Lazio.
Key Points for Risk Assessment:
Based on statistical data and expert analysis, several low- and medium-risk betting tips are available.
Low-Risk Tips:
- Both Teams to Score (GG): Low risk. Data shows that both teams are likely to score. Fiorentina’s xG is high, while Milan’s attack is very productive, so it is likely that both sides will find the net.
- Probability: 65-70%
Odds: 1.62 – Safe Kelly: 2%
Final Thoughts:
The match is difficult to predict in terms of the final result, but based on the statistics and analyses, one of the most likely scenarios is that both teams will score. The forecasts suggest that attackers on both sides may dominate, so focusing on goals and attacks is advisable if placing bets.