Alaves – Barcelona

SPAIN: LaLiga – Round 9 – October 6, 2024

Analysis of Alavés Statistics

Alavés has shown mixed performance so far, winning four out of their last eight matches, drawing one, and losing three. The team has averaged 1.37 goals scored while conceding 1.50 goals per game. Their xG metrics (expected goals) indicate they could have scored more than 20 goals had their finishing been more efficient.

Carlos Vicente and Kiké are the players with the best statistics, each scoring 2 goals, indicating that the team’s attack isn’t particularly prolific, though their defense also requires attention. Goalkeeper Antonio Sivera’s stats are mixed, with 12 goals conceded, reflecting an average of 1.50 goals per game. Based on statistics, Sivera’s performance isn’t the best, with a 68.8% save rate.

Analysis of Barcelona Statistics

Barcelona’s performance is much more favorable, winning six out of their last eight matches, drawing one, and losing just one. Their goal-scoring statistics are outstanding, with Robert Lewandowski as the team’s top scorer with 7 goals, and the team averaging 3.12 goals per game. Their xG metrics also reflect this, showing they would have scored 25 goals had they capitalized on all their chances.

Goalkeeper Marc-André ter Stegen’s performance has been exceptional, with a 73.3% save rate and only 5 goals conceded. Their defense is solid, and considering their current form, it is more likely they will maintain their goal advantage during the match.

Key Statistics and Analysis

Comparing the statistics of the two teams, Barcelona dominates in the attack, while Alavés struggles defensively. Alavés has conceded an average of 0.91 goals per match, while Barcelona has scored an average of 0.91 goals per match. Based on Alavés’ current performance, it should be considered that Barcelona could win the match by a significant margin, taking advantage of the weaker defense.

Considering the expected goal ranges (xG), Barcelona is likely to dominate the match, and statistics show that their offensive power should be able to break through Alavés’ defense.

Motivation and Insights

The motivational factors also play an important role in the match. Barcelona is at the top of the table, and a win is crucial to maintaining their place in international competitions. For Alavés, this match could be a matter of life and death, as they are fighting to escape the relegation zone, providing them with significant motivation.

Betting Recommendations

Based on the outcome of the match, I recommend the following betting options, taking into account statistical data and motivational factors:

  1. Barcelona to WinLow Risk (70%)
    • Based on Barcelona’s form and statistics, the likelihood of a win is high.
    Odds: 1.60 – Safe Kelly: 2%
  2. Barcelona Over 1.5 GoalsMedium Risk (60%)
    • Given Barcelona’s goal-scoring capabilities and Alavés’ weak defense, it is expected that Barcelona will score over 1.5 goals.
    Odds: 1.53 – Safe Kelly: 3%

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