Ligue 1, October 4, 2024
Based on the review of statistics and human analysis of the match between Marseille and Angers, I have prepared the following detailed analysis.
Marseille’s Performance
Marseille has shown a relatively strong season so far, with 4 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss from 6 matches, resulting in 13 points. Their xG (expected goals) is 8.2, which corresponds well with their actual goal production (15). However, they have shown weaker performance in defense, as their xGA (expected goals against) is 9.3, which is higher than the 7 goals they have conceded so far.
Their attacking play revolves around Mason Greenwood, who has been involved in 5 goals and has an xG of 2.2. This indicates that Greenwood has been extremely effective in converting his chances. Luis Henrique is also noteworthy, having contributed to 6 goals (3 goals and 3 assists), adding a significant attacking force to the team.
However, there are weaknesses in defense, especially reflected in their xGA, which shows they are prone to allowing chances for their opponents. Goalkeeper Gerónimo Rulli’s outstanding saves (with a +1.1 PSxG indicator) often prevent further damage, suggesting that the defense does not always function effectively, but Rulli regularly steps up to save the team.
Angers’ Performance
Angers has had a challenging season so far, with only 2 draws and 4 losses in 6 matches, scoring just 4 goals and conceding 12. Their xG (expected goals) is 5.3, indicating low attacking potential, and their xGA (expected goals against) is 10.1, reflecting that they have not only conceded more goals than expected, but their defense is also weaker than anticipated.
Their most dangerous player is Himad Abdelli, who has scored 2 goals, but he also struggles to consistently threaten the opposition’s goal (xG of only 1.8). Bamba Dieng and Zinedine Ferhat are also key players, each scoring once, but they lack consistency in attack. The team’s weak points include midfield ball circulation and defense, particularly on the flanks, where they often struggle against opponents.
Risk Analysis (Tips)
- Home Win (Marseille) – Low Risk
Marseille’s home form is strong, with their attackers (Greenwood and Luis Henrique) performing well, while Angers struggles away from home. Marseille shows a 66% chance of winning. Odds: 1.23, recommended stake: 4% - Total Goals Over 2.5 – Medium Risk
Marseille’s attacking strength combined with Angers’ weak defense could lead to a high-scoring game. Angers’ matches average 3.5 goals, so there is a 60% probability of more than 2.5 goals. Odds: 1.52, recommended stake: 2% - Over 3 Yellow Cards – Low Risk
Both teams tend to play aggressively. Angers has received 11 yellow cards so far, while Marseille has 13. This match could be intense in terms of defense. Probability: 70%. Odds: 1.61, recommended stake: Kelly 7.85% Marseille to Have 5 or More Corners – Medium Risk
Marseille’s attacking dominance and ball possession will likely result in many corners, especially at home. They have consistently had 5 or more corners in recent matches, with a 65% chance of doing so again. Odds: 1.58, recommended stake: Kelly 4.66%
Summary
A Marseille win and total goals over 2.5 are low or medium-risk tips, considering the current forms and statistics. Angers’ poor form and Marseille’s attacking power make a home win likely, while yellow cards and corner bets are also advantageous betting opportunities.