EUROPE: Europa League – Group Stage – Round 2 – October 3, 2024
Porto:
Porto is statistically a dominant team when playing at home, having lost only one of their last 22 home matches and securing 18 wins. However, they suffered an unexpected defeat in their Europa League opener against Bodø/Glimt, which may have shaken their confidence in European competitions. Nevertheless, they remain strong at home, as shown by their 4-0 league victory against Arouca.
Player statistics also show that Porto is capable of effective attacking play. Samu Omorodion and Nico Gonzalez have been standout performers, while the team’s xG (expected goals) was around 2.5 in the match against Bodø/Glimt, indicating high attacking potential. In defense, Moura, Perez, and Zé Pedro have been reliable in most matches.
Manchester United:
Manchester United’s form has been much more inconsistent. In their last four away European matches, they conceded 23 goals and managed only one win. Their recent 0-3 loss to Tottenham was a heavy blow, and the weaknesses in their midfield were clearly exposed. Bruno Fernandes returns after his suspension and will play an important role in building attacks. Eriksen and Ugarte are likely to be paired in midfield, but both players are more attack-oriented, which poses a defensive risk.
Their xG against Twente in their recent draw was 1.3, indicating that they can create chances, but their finishing has often been inconsistent. Rashford and Zirkzee are well-positioned but do not pose a consistent goal threat.
Tactical Analysis and Motivation:
Porto shows much more stability at home and is the clear favorite against Manchester United. Experts suggest that it is crucial for Ten Hag to react positively after the defeat to Tottenham, but earning points at Porto’s home ground seems like a tough task. United’s away form in Europe is particularly weak, while Porto’s home record is strong.
The statistics suggest that Porto is more likely to dominate the match, while Manchester United’s defensive weaknesses are likely to provide more opportunities for the home team.
Low-risk tips:
- Both teams to score: 59.96% probability (Low risk) – Both teams have shown attacking capabilities in previous matches, and neither defense has been outstanding. Porto is strong at home, while United can find the net even away.
Odds: 1.65 – Safe Kelly: 3%
Medium-risk tip:
- Total goals over 2.5: 63.61% probability (Medium risk) – Both teams tend to participate in high-scoring matches, especially with United’s away games. Given the defensive vulnerabilities, multiple goals are expected.
Odds: 1.81 – Safe Kelly: 2%
Summary:
Based on statistical and expert analyses, Porto is favored to win at home. Considering the attacking potential of both teams, goals are expected on both sides, and the total goals could exceed 2.5.