EUROPE: Champions League – Group Stage – Round 2 – October 2, 2024
Analysis Based on Statistics and Expert Data:
- Statistical Data and xG (Expected Goals): Shakhtar Donetsk and Atalanta both started their Champions League campaign with goalless draws. Shakhtar recorded 0.9 xG (expected goals) in their first match, while Atalanta achieved 1.2 xG against Arsenal, indicating that both teams are prone to missing chances and have difficulties converting opportunities into goals. The statistics suggest that both teams possess moderate attacking potential but can create chances, mainly by capitalizing on their opponents’ mistakes.
- Shakhtar Players’ Form: Shakhtar’s main attacking players include Artem Bondarenko and Heorhiy Sudakov, who have both scored several goals this season. Sudakov has stood out with his creativity, recording the most key passes in the team. However, Bondarenko’s goalless performance in the first Champions League match and the team’s overall low xG value indicate that Shakhtar’s attacking play can be unpredictable.
- Atalanta’s Defensive Weaknesses: Atalanta’s defensive statistics, including 12 goals conceded in six Serie A matches, paint a worrying picture. Injuries have also plagued the team, with the absence of key players like Gianluca Scamacca and Giorgio Scalvini being significant losses. Nevertheless, the return of Hien, Kolasinac, and Djimsiti could help stabilize the defense, but fluctuations remain an issue.
- Players’ Form and Key Players: Atalanta’s attack is centered around Lookman and Retegui, though Retegui is struggling with efficiency, as seen by his missed penalty and performance against Arsenal. Lookman, who usually scores in Europa League matches, is currently out of form but could be the most dangerous player if he regains his touch. On Shakhtar’s side, Sudakov and Bondarenko are the primary playmakers, but the team struggles if they do not dominate the midfield.
Low-Risk Tips:
- Over 3.5 Yellow Cards: Both teams play with a physical style, and given the vulnerability in their defenses and the stakes of the match, it is likely that there will be numerous fouls. Atalanta already displayed their aggressive nature in the first round, and Shakhtar is not shy about engaging in physical battles.
Odds: 1.64 – Safe Kelly: 2%
- Over 8.5 Corners: Based on their gameplay, both teams tend to attack down the flanks and frequently earn corners. The match analysis suggests that at least 9 corners are likely.
Odds: 1.52 – Safe Kelly: 1%
Overall, due to the unpredictability of the match, it is challenging to predict a definitive result, but the indications of a close contest, few goals, and a tough, foul-filled game seem likely.