Villarreal – Las Palmas

SPAIN: LaLiga – Round 8 – September 30, 2024

The match analysis takes into account the statistics of Villarreal and Las Palmas, thoroughly examining both teams’ performances so far, the form of their players, and the tactical differences between the teams.

Statistical Analysis of Villarreal

Villarreal has shown an overall balanced performance in the season so far. Although they had some weak performances, such as the 5-1 loss against Barcelona, their statistics still reflect a strong attacking presence. The team’s xG (expected goals) has surpassed 1.5 in several matches, indicating their ability to create scoring opportunities, even if they don’t always capitalize on them. Ayoze Pérez has stood out with 6 goals in 4.6 matches, and his xG of 2.4 suggests he could score even more in the future. The team’s average of 1.71 goals per match is slightly higher than Las Palmas’.

However, their defense is a weak point, having conceded 14 goals in 7 matches, which is an average of 2 goals per match. Goalkeeper Diego Conde has a save percentage of 63.2%, and the negative PSxG (expected goals allowed vs. shots faced) difference of -3.2 indicates that their defense is somewhat vulnerable.

Statistical Analysis of Las Palmas

Las Palmas has had mixed results this season, failing to win in their last 7 matches, with 4 losses and 3 draws. Their attack has been quite inefficient, as they have only scored 7 goals so far. Their xG is also low, averaging around 1.0 per match, which points to poor chance conversion. Their top scorer, Alberto Moleiro, has 3 goals but an xG of only 1.6, which suggests that his scoring record might not be sustainable.

Defensively, goalkeeper Jasper Cillessen has performed well with a save rate of 69.4%, and his PSxG of +0.1 also indicates a positive defensive performance. Las Palmas generally maintains good ball possession, but their high possession rate has not led to enough scoring opportunities or goals.

Tactical Comparison and Motivation

According to the analysis, Villarreal has a stronger attacking force, while Las Palmas’ strength lies more in possession and defense. Villarreal is expected to dominate the game, especially at home, as they have better scoring potential. Las Palmas struggles to score, and if they fail to stop Villarreal’s attack, they could find themselves in a difficult situation.

The human analysis indicates that Villarreal will be highly motivated to win in order to strengthen their position in the middle of the La Liga table, while Las Palmas is fighting to avoid slipping into the relegation zone.

Low-Risk Betting Tip:

  1. Villarreal win + Over 1.5 goals: Based on statistics and previous matches, Villarreal is more likely to win. Las Palmas has not shown convincing form so far, especially in away games.

Odds: 1.61 – Safe Kelly: 2%

Medium-Risk Betting Tip:

  1. Ayoze Pérez to score: Ayoze Pérez is in excellent form with 6 goals this season. Las Palmas’ defensive problems increase his chances of scoring.

Odds: 1.92 – Safe Kelly: 1%

Conclusion

Based on the statistics, Villarreal is favored to win, especially at home. Las Palmas’ weak attacking and defensive performance makes it difficult for them to create scoring opportunities and win matches.

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