TURKEY: Super Lig – Round 7 – September 30, 2024
Team Form and Statistical Overview
Kayserispor is currently positioned in the lower third of the table, sitting at 17th place with just three points. The team has not won a single match this season, drawing several, including a 2-2 draw against Trabzonspor, where their opponent salvaged a point in the final minutes. Moreover, Kayserispor’s defense is one of the weakest in the league, having conceded six goals in their last three matches. Their xG (expected goals) metrics are among the lowest in the league, indicating poor performance both offensively and defensively. These defensive issues could be particularly problematic against a stronger opponent like Beşiktaş.
Beşiktaş, on the other hand, has shown a much better form: winning four out of their five league games so far, currently standing in 4th place. Despite a heavy 4-0 defeat against Ajax in the Europa League, they continue to display strong form in the Turkish Super Lig, scoring 11 goals in their matches so far. Additionally, their opponents have only managed to score four goals against them, making them the second-best defense in the league.
Key Players and Absentees
Kayserispor is missing several key defenders, including Arif Kocaman and Majid Hosseini, and their goalkeeper, Bilal Bayazit, is also unavailable. These absences further weaken the team’s defensive setup. In contrast, Beşiktaş will also be without a few key players, such as Necip Uysal and Al Musrati, but their squad depth allows them to compensate for these absences without significant disruption.
Statistical Analysis
Kayserispor’s defensive stats are weak, especially at home. They have won just one of their last 13 home matches and lost six. Meanwhile, Beşiktaş’s forwards, like Ciro Immobile and Rafa Silva, are in excellent form; Immobile has already scored four goals in five matches, posing a serious threat to Kayserispor’s defense. Additionally, Beşiktaş’s defense, led by Gabriel Paulista and Felix Uduokhai, appears solid, making it difficult for opposing teams to reach their goal.
Motivation and Team Spirit
Beşiktaş will be highly motivated, as a victory could push them higher up the standings and bring them closer to the title race. Although the defeat against Ajax was challenging, the depth of the team and the leadership of Giovanni van Bronckhorst will enable them to bounce back quickly. For Kayserispor, every match is crucial as they fight to avoid relegation, but despite their motivation, their poor form and defensive errors could hold them back.
Low-Risk Tips:
- Beşiktaş to Win (1-0, 2-0) – Beşiktaş’s strong form, offensive power, and Kayserispor’s defensive shortcomings make an away win likely. Low risk.
Odds: 1.68 – Safe Kelly: 1%
- Beşiktaş to Score More (Over 1.5 goals) – Beşiktaş’s offensive strength gives them a good chance to score multiple goals, especially against a weak defense. Medium risk.