GERMANY: Bundesliga – Round 5 – September 29, 2024
Holsten Kiel’s Form and Performance:
Holsten Kiel has struggled with their defense throughout the season. In four Bundesliga matches, they have conceded 13 goals, averaging 3.25 goals per game, while scoring only 5 goals (1.25 goals per game). Kiel’s defense is weak, as reflected in goalkeeper Timon Weiner’s 59.3% save rate and the 13 goals conceded. In their previous matches, they made several mistakes, particularly during their heavy loss to Bayern Munich (1-6), indicating serious defensive issues. Kiel’s offense is slightly better but still struggles to establish effective attacking play.
Eintracht Frankfurt’s Strengths:
Eintracht Frankfurt has showcased strong attacking play in the season so far. Omar Marmoush has been particularly outstanding, scoring 4 goals and providing 1 assist. Marmoush’s xG (expected goals) is 3.0, yet he has scored 4 goals, indicating that he is the key player in their attacks. Frankfurt has also been strong defensively, conceding only 4 goals this season, and their goalkeepers, Kevin Trapp and Kauã Santos, have combined for a 78.9% save rate.
Key Observations:
Defensive Disparity: Kiel’s weak defense against Frankfurt’s strong attacking play could pose a significant problem for Kiel. Eintracht’s attackers, especially Marmoush and Ekitike, are likely to exploit Kiel’s defensive weaknesses.
Holsten Kiel’s Attacking Potential: Kiel has struggled with attacking efficiency so far, but Benedikt Pichler and Shuto Machino have shown some promising signs. Machino has scored 2 goals this season and has 1.5 xG, indicating he may be capable of scoring. However, Frankfurt’s solid defense could cause difficulties for Kiel.
Yellow Cards: Kiel often plays aggressively, having collected 8 yellow cards so far, suggesting that in a tight match, more yellow cards could be expected. Kiel’s defensive problems and tactical fouls against Frankfurt could increase the number of cards.
Low-Risk Bet Builder Tip:
- Frankfurt draw or win (X2) + Under 4.5 goals in the match: Considering Frankfurt’s current form, with their strong attacking and defensive play against Kiel’s defensive weaknesses, Frankfurt will not lose, and it is highly likely that there will be fewer than 4.5 goals in the match.
Odds: 1.58 – Safe Kelly: 2%
Medium-Risk Tip:
- Frankfurt to score over 1.5 goals: Due to the form of Marmoush and Ekitike, and Kiel’s defensive difficulties, two or more Frankfurt goals are likely.