GERMANY: Bundesliga – Matchday 5 – September 27, 2024
Before the Bayern Munich vs. Bayer Leverkusen match, a thorough analysis of both statistical data and expert opinions reveals several important factors that can influence the outcome of the game.
Statistical Overview
Bayern Munich:
- Harry Kane’s Form: Kane is in excellent form, scoring 5 goals and providing 4 assists in 4 matches, which is a significant advantage. His xG (expected goals) is 2.9, and his npxG+xAG (non-penalty expected goals and expected assists combined) is 1.83, showing that his efficiency is nearly maximized as he exceeds expectations.
- Defensive Stability: Kim Min-jae and Upamecano are providing solid defensive performances, with Kim making very few mistakes, and Bayern has conceded only 4 goals in 4 matches. The xGA (expected goals against) value is 1.7, meaning that the number of goals conceded is lower than expected.
- Attacking Play: Bayern has generated an expected goals value of 16.3 in the Bundesliga matches, which reflects the team’s attacking power. The team dominates matches with over 70% ball possession.
Bayer Leverkusen:
- Florian Wirtz’s Outstanding Performance: Wirtz has 4 goals and 1 assist this season, with an xG of 2.4 and npxG+xAG of 1.00, showing that he is a central element in the attacking play.
- Defensive Weaknesses: Leverkusen has conceded 9 goals so far, which is somewhat concerning against Bayern Munich’s offensive machine. Goalkeeper Hrádecký’s performance has been average, with a save rate of 62.5%, while the PSxG (expected goals saved) is -1.2, indicating he has conceded more goals than expected based on the statistics.
- Attacking Strength: However, Leverkusen has generated an xG value of 5.00, reflecting strong attacking play, especially from Boniface (3 goals), who has also been very efficient.
Expert Analyses
Experts highlight Bayern Munich’s stability at home, while mentioning Leverkusen’s potential in attack. It’s important to note that Bayern Munich usually dominates its home matches, while Leverkusen’s away performance is inconsistent, although they have recently shown strong attacking play.
According to experts, Leverkusen is highly motivated, as they are preparing for one of the Bundesliga’s top matches and have the opportunity to prove themselves against a strong Bayern Munich side.
Low-Risk Tips:
- Bayern Munich Win: – Based on the statistics, Bayern Munich dominates at home, while Leverkusen tends to concede more goals. Bayern’s attacking play, especially through Harry Kane and Gnabry, seems strong enough to secure the victory. Risk: Low
Probability: 65%
Odds: 1.76 – Safe Kelly: 2%
- Over 3.5 Yellow Cards: – Both teams are physically strong. For Bayern, Upamecano and Kimmich have already collected several yellow cards, while Leverkusen has players known for their physical play, such as Granit Xhaka. This will be a tense match, so several yellow cards are expected. Risk: Low
Probability: 60%
Odds: 1.68 – Safe Kelly: 2%
Medium-Risk Tip:
- Harry Kane to Score Anytime: – Kane’s form is impressive, and Leverkusen’s defense has not shown much stability, making it likely that Kane will score. His xG also supports this. Risk: Medium
Probability: 60%
Odds: 1.63 – Safe Kelly: 1%
Summary
A Bayern Munich win is the safest bet, while the number of goals suggests a high-scoring match. Leverkusen’s attack could pose a challenge to Bayern’s defense, but Bayern’s offensive power is expected to prevail.